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January 27, 2012

New-home sales hit a record low

Filed under: Finance, Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 5:32 pm

Just 302,000 new homes were sold in 2011, 6.2% below 2010 and the lowest number of annual sales since the government started tracking home sales in 1963.

In December, sales of single-family homes fell 2.2% month-over-month to an annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

A consensus of experts from Briefing.com had forecast an annual rate of sales of 321,000 for December. The actual result was a 6.9% decline from 12 months earlier, when homes sold at a 329,000 annual rate.

The dismal report was a reversal of other recent housing market trends. Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales rose for the third straight month in December and the Census Bureau said that construction of new homes had been gaining ground.

Pat Newport, an industry analyst with IHS Global Insight, did not put much stock in the December new-home sales report, however. "They’re not statistically significant," he said. "I think the other recent numbers, like on housing starts and permits, give a more accurate picture of the current trends in the market."

Construction gains late in the year indicate that the new home market is picking up, he said.

Still, he added, these are the lowest new home sales numbers for the nation as a whole and for three of the four regions ever recorded. Only the Midwest escaped notching a new a record low.

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The median home price for homes sold during December was $210,300 and there was a 6.1-month supply of homes at the current rate of sales.

Getting new home construction healthy again would help revitalize the economy. For every 100 homes built, 300 jobs are created, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. "Half of those are on construction sites and the other half are people building appliances, cabinets, carpets and other goods for the home," he said.

He’s forecasting an 18% rise in new homes sales this year. Newport, of IHS Global, is predicting a slightly lower gain of about 15%. 

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January 26, 2012

Fed: Slightly lower growth, unemployment in 2012

Filed under: Homes, online — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 2:32 am

The Federal Reserve has downgraded its outlook for U.S. economic growth this year but is slightly more optimistic about the unemployment rate.

The Fed expects the economy to grow between 2.2 percent and 2.7 percent in 2012, according to its updated economic forecasts released Wednesday. That’s down from November’s forecast of between 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent.

Many economists expect Europe will suffer a recession this year, which will slow U.S. growth.

Earlier Wednesday, the Fed noted the weak but growing economy when it said it doesn’t plan to raise its benchmark interest rate until late 2014. And some members wanted to push that back even further, according to new interest rate projections released with the quarterly forecasts.

Still, the Fed said it expects unemployment to fall low as 8.2 percent. That’s an improvement from November’s bottom rate of 8.5 percent.

In December, the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent _ the lowest level in nearly three years _ after the sixth straight month of solid hiring.

Inflation has been relatively tame and the Fed doesn’t see that changing over the next three years.

And for the first time, the Fed offered an official target for inflation _ 2 percent _ in a statement of its long-term policy goals. It had previously indicated that inflation between 1.7 percent and 2 percent was acceptable.

The Fed did not specify a target for unemployment. But it said that unemployment between 5.2 percent and 6 percent would be consistent with its goal for a healthy economy instant payday loan.

The updated quarterly forecasts also showed that some Fed members wanted to extend the period of record-low interest rates beyond 2014. Eleven of the 17 members said they don’t see interest rates rising until at least 2015. Only 10 members have a vote on the policy committee.

The Fed said record-low rates are still needed to help boost an improving but still sluggish economy. The extended timeframe is a shift from the Fed’s previous plan to keep the rate low at least until mid-2013.

The economy is looking a little better, according to recent private and government data. Companies are hiring more, the stock market is rising, factories are busy and more people are buying cars. Even the home market is showing slight gains after three dismal years.

Still, the threat of a recession in Europe is likely to drag on the global economy. And another year of weak wage gains in the United States could force consumers to pull back on spending, which would slow growth.

Private economists forecast that the nation’s economy to grow just 2 percent in the first three months of the year, in part because of the recession in Europe. For the year, they expect growth of 2.4 percent, according to a survey by the Associated Press. That’s sluggish for a recovery. But it is better than last year’s likely pace of below 2 percent.

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January 24, 2012

IMF calls for larger ‘firewall’ in Europe

Filed under: Finance, money — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 9:12 am

The director of the International Monetary Fund said Monday that Europe needs a stronger financial firewall to stop the spread of debt contagion in the eurozone.

Speaking in Berlin, IMF chief Christine Lagarde supported a plan to fold the resources of the European Financial Stability Facility into its permanent replacement, known as the European Stability Mechanism, which has yet to be fully established.

The EFSF is valued at €440 billion, while the ESM is expected to have €500 billion in lending capacity. Combining the funds could result in a total firewall worth €1 trillion, according to eurozone officials.

The goal is to shield larger euro area economies from the debt crisis that has pushed Greece to the brink of default and resulted in bailouts for Ireland and Portugal.

"We need a larger firewall," said Lagarde. "Without it, countries like Italy and Spain, that are fundamentally able to repay their debts, could potentially be forced into a solvency crisis by abnormal financing costs."

European recovery? Wait till 2013 (at least)

Lagarde stressed that the ESM should be funded with "real tangible capital," as opposed to the loan guarantees that make up the EFSF.

The comments came as finance ministers from the 17 nations that use the euro currency, known as the Eurogroup, met to discuss ways to speed up implementation of the ESM. They are also expected to hash out the details of the fiscal pact European leaders proposed in December.

In addition to calling for a stronger firewall, Lagarde said eurozone officials need to do more to boost economic growth, which could include additional action by the European Central Bank.

Lagarde also said the eurozone needs to move toward greater "fiscal integration." She pointed to a number of options for "fiscal risk-sharing," including the creation of so-called euro bonds, an idea that has proved controversial.

She welcomed steps the ECB has taken so far, including a long-term lending program that has already pumped nearly €500 billion into the banking system payday loans in one hour.

"That has helped enormously," Lagarde said, adding that "there is a role for the ECB to play in terms of monetary policy."

European banks need to raise more capital, but they must do so in a way that will not cause credit conditions to contract, cautioned Lagarde.

She said governments with large deficits need to continue to tighten public finances, although she warned the aggressive budget cuts could increase the risk of a deeper recession. However, nations that are in better financial shape should contribute to the "common effort" by scaling back fiscal consolidation, she added.

World Bank warns on risk of global recession

Separately, Lagarde said the IMF will lower its growth forecasts for "many part of the world" when it releases an update to its World Economic Outlook early Tuesday.

She called on global policymakers to do what is necessary to prevent a deeper decline, saying last year’s economic problems were driven "by a lack of a collective determination to reach a cooperative solution."

"Now the world must find the political will to do what it knows must be done," she said.

While the debt crisis in Europe is the biggest threat, Lagarde also pointed to the challenges facing the U.S. economy.

"The United States, as the world’s largest economy and the center of the global financial system, has a special responsibility," she said.

Despite signs of a modest recovery, the U.S. economy remains hindered by high unemployment and a weak housing market.

In addition, U.S. policymakers need to get past the "partisan impasse" on how to reduce the nation’s long-term debts, without stifling economic growth, she said. 

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January 22, 2012

Vancouver Is Second-Costliest Housing Market - Bloomberg

Filed under: Uncategorized, money — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 8:44 pm

Vancouver displaced Sydney as the least-affordable housing market after Hong Kong among large English-speaking cities, as home prices rose faster than incomes, a study of 325 metropolitan areas worldwide showed.

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January 21, 2012

Monti Takes Ax to Mussolini-Era Guilds to Spur Italy Growth - Bloomberg

Filed under: Finance, Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 8:08 am

Prime Minister Mario Monti

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January 19, 2012

Apple unveils iBooks 2, says it will

Filed under: Loans, Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 12:24 pm

iBooks 2 will be a

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January 17, 2012

Manufacturing in New York Fed Region Expands at Faster Pace Than Estimated - Bloomberg

Filed under: management, news — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 9:32 pm

Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in January at the fastest pace in nine months, reflecting improving orders, sales and employment.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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January 15, 2012

Why your orange juice is still safe

Filed under: Uncategorized, term — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 2:52 pm

Don’t toss out that full carton of orange juice sitting in your refrigerator just yet.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is testing all orange juice and orange juice concentrate shipments as well as products at domestic manufacturers, but the regulating agency says "consumers can be confident that the orange juice in their refrigerators is safe."

Here’s what you need to know.

Why is the FDA testing OJ? Last month, Coca-Cola alerted the FDA that it detected low levels of a fungicide in its own and in competitors’ orange juice and in juice concentrates from Brazil following routine tests.

As a precautionary measure, the FDA has halted imports of orange juice and orange juice concentrates from all over the world, and is testing each shipment for the fungicide carbendazim. The FDA said it will deny entry of any imported orange juice products that test at 10 parts per billion or higher for carbendazim, which is still a very low level.

As of Friday, the FDA said it has collected samples from 31 shipments. Twenty-eight are still pending analysis, but three shipments of orange juice and orange juice concentrates were negative for carbendazim, and will be released by the FDA.

What is carbendazim? Carbendazim is a chemical fungicide that is legal in most parts of the world, including Canada, Japan, Europe and Brazil.

The FDA said that industry reports indicated the carbendazim was in orange juice products from the 2011 crop in Brazil, where the fungicide is used to combat a type of mold that grows on orange trees known as black spot.

In the United States, however, the Environmental Protection Agency has not approved the use of carbendazim as a fungicide, and under U.S. law, it’s considered an unlawful pesticide chemical residue.

Is carbendazim dangerous? The EPA has conducted a preliminary risk assessment on carbendazim and determined that levels under 80 parts per billion (ppb) in orange juice do not raise safety concerns.

In the original tests, Coca-Cola (, Fortune 500) detected between 10 ppb and 35 ppb in orange juice products of its own and those of its competitors. Coca-Cola makes Minute Maid, Simply Orange and Odwalla.

However, the EPA is continuing to conduct risk assessments, and said it will have more results next week.

How much orange juice comes from Brazil? About 75% of all orange juice consumed locally is supplied domestically, and the rest is imported, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

However, of the remaining juice that is imported, Brazil is the largest contributor. In 2010, the South American country shipped over 171 million gallons of orange juice to the United States, accounting for more than 56% of all orange juice imports that year.

But overall, only 11% of all orange juice consumed in the U bad credit personal loan lenders.S. comes from Brazil, according to the USDA.

U.S. companies import orange juice from Brazil because of unpredictable weather conditions in Florida — hurricanes and freezing temperatures — which can negatively impact that state’s orange crops.

Is is possible that the orange juice in my fridge has carbendazim? Yes. But because the levels of carbendazim that have been detected are not harmful, the FDA said it has "determined that requiring a recall or the destruction of orange juice products" is not necessary.

In fact, the competitor products that Coca-Cola tested were "currently marketed finished products," meaning they were purchased off grocery store shelves.

Tropicana orange juice, which is owned by PepsiCo (, Fortune 500), contains orange juice from the U.S. and Brazil, according to package labels. But the company said it made an "unrelated decision some months ago" to transition to 100% Florida orange juice for its Pure Premium juices, which do not include orange juice concentrate.

Tropicana said it is already the largest buyer of Florida oranges, so the transition only requires a "minor supply chain adjustment" that will be completed by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, PepsiCo’s Naked Juice products are made only from oranges grown in the United States, the company said.

Similarly, Florida’s Natural, which competes with Coca-Cola and PepsiCo’s orange juice products, prides itself on only using oranges that are grown by U.S. farmers in Florida.

Trader Joe’s said that although its orange juices are only made with oranges sourced from Florida, California and Mexico, its orange juice suppliers are conducting additional testing in light of recent concerns.

The FDA has confirmed that it is also testing samples of finished orange juice products and orange juice concentrates at domestic manufacturers, and said the sampling and analysis will be completed in the next few weeks. The agency said if it identifies a brand of orange juice that presents a public health risk due to levels of carbendazim, it will issue a recall.

How will this affect orange juice prices? On Tuesday, March orange juice futures spiked almost 10%, or 20 cents, to $2.07 a pound on the ICE Futures Exchange, which traders said was the highest level since 1977.

Futures reversed course on Wednesday, 9%, to $1.881 per pound. And on Thursday, orange juice futures retreated another 5.6%. On Friday, futures popped 8%.

Traders say huge spikes in orange juice futures could result in price bumps at the grocery store.

Coca-Cola said it could not comment on whether the discoveries would affect pricing of its orange juice products.  

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January 13, 2012

Obama Will Seek Authority to Merge Agencies in Effort to Shrink Government - Bloomberg

Filed under: Uncategorized, news — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 8:56 am

President Barack Obama will speak today at the White House at 11:20 a.m. Washington time on steps he plans to make the U.S. government leaner, smarter and more consumer-friendly, a White House official said business card templates.

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January 11, 2012

Greek deficit to exceed target in 2011

Filed under: Mortgage, technology — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 11:36 pm

Debt-crippled Greece’s budget deficit is expected to hit 9.6 percent of economic output in 2011, about half a percentage point above target, the development minister said Wednesday.

Michalis Chryssochoidis said that an increase in the use of European Union structural development funds had contributed to lowering government overspending from 10.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010.

“The good news is that absorption of European Union funds has exceeded all expectations,” Chryssochoidis said at an economic forum where the government hopes to attract investment from the United Arab Emirates.

But Greece, which is relying on billions in rescue loans from its European partners and the International Monetary Fund to keep afloat, had pledged to cut the 2011 deficit to 9 percent of GDP.

Greece ran up high budget deficits for years, building a suffocating debt load set to exceed 160 percent of GDP in 2011. In exchange for a vital euro110 billion ($140 billion) international bailout in May 2010, the country implemented a harsh austerity program, slashing pensions and salaries while repeatedly hiking taxes and raising retirement ages.

The country’s interim coalition government is rushing to pass a new batch of reforms and cutbacks, to secure a second, euro130 billion bailout package approved in October but not yet finalized instant personal loans guaranteed.

Fitch Ratings warned on Wednesday that Greece’s financial troubles could still worsen the eurozone crisis if it can’t work out a debt reduction deal with creditors, part of the second bailout package.

Fitch’s head of sovereign ratings David Riley said Greece “still has lots of potential to plunge Europe into crisis” and that “time is running out.”

Greece is in talks with private investors about a voluntary 50 percent reduction in their Greek bond holdings.

It needs to agree the deal before it can get another installment in its rescue loans, which it will need to repay euro14 billion in bonds that come due in March.

Riley said one complicating factor in the private creditors’ deal was the European Central Bank’s refusal to write down its estimated euro45 billion in Greek bonds. That means private bondholders have to be asked to take on more losses to reach a given reduction in Greece’s debt load.

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