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WALNUT CREEK, Calif. — Recent master’s degree recipient Maureen Nelson is looking for her first job in a new career, but she’s unworried. Nelson is sure her nearly 300 contacts, her online skills and her determination will see her through.

Nelson is one of many people who made finding a new job their New Year’s resolution. The odds of succeeding aren’t bad, experts say, especially if you take advantage of available resources and use the right approach.

That’s significant because the jobless rate hit 5 percent, a two-year high, in December, according to a report earlier this month by the Labor Department. Talk of a recession is spreading thanks to the slowing housing market and the subprime mortgage meltdown.

"I think we have over-catastrophized," said career consultant Marty Nemko, who was chosen as the Bay Area’s best career coach by the weekly Bay Guardian newspaper and is a contributing editor at U.S. News & World Report. "Most of the evidence suggests the subprime and credit crunch are not extending throughout the entire economy."
Nelson agrees with Nemko, whose strategies she is following in her job hunt.

The December graduate of John F. Kennedy University in Pleasant Hill, Calif., who got a master’s degree in career development, is active on the business-networking site LinkedIn, a free site that helps members build networks. She also belongs to San Francisco Women on the Web, an Internet-based professional group with its own website and an active e-mail list payday loans.

Though SF WOW, as members refer to it, is mostly oriented toward Internet or high-tech jobs, members share career tips and contacts.

This group is a good example of what experts like Nemko call the "hidden job market." It’s important to get the word out that you’re looking, and what you’re looking for — in Nelson’s case, a job as a career counselor. That way, if your contacts hear about something, they’ll let you know.

"Go to Yahoo Groups and look for a professional discussion group related to your profession," Nelson suggested. "Then sign up for that group, and participate actively. Visibility is key."

Attending real-life events is important as well, she said.

"I got an internship at the Concord One Stop Career Center because I joined the Association of Career Professionals International," Nelson said. "I sat next to the director at a meeting, and told her I wanted an internship."

And, of course, Nelson uses Craigslist, the online bulletin board founded in San Francisco that has become nearly ubiquitous for job hunters and others across the country.

While her online skills are formidable, Nelson said every job she found in her previous career in publishing came from a newspaper ad. So it doesn’t hurt to use that resource as well.

"When I answer an ad, I target my r

new york — Stocks rallied on Wednesday the most in two months on speculation lower borrowing costs and a plan to bail out bond insurers will restore confidence in the financial system.

Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. banks, helped the Dow Jones industrial average erase a 326-point loss and sparked the biggest advance in financial shares in five years. Centex Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc. led house builders to their steepest gain since at least 1994 on expectations the Federal Reserve’s surprise 0.75 percentage point rate cut Tuesday will spur construction.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index added 28.08 to 1,338.58, its first advance in six days. The Dow rose 298.98 to 12,270.17. The 30-stock gauge climbed 632 points from its low of the day to its high, marking its biggest swing since July 2002. The Nasdaq composite index increased 24.14 to 2,316.41.

Benchmark indexes posted a rally in the final hour of trading that erased declines spurred by forecasts of slowing sales at Apple Inc. and Motorola Inc.
Apple tumbled $16.64, or 11 percent, to $139, its biggest drop since July 2002. CEO Steve Jobs spooked investors by failing to meet the most optimistic projections for first-quarter profit and forecasting slower sales growth.

Motorola retreated $2.31, or 19 percent, to $10.01 in its biggest loss since 2002. The company forecast a loss for the first quarter after posting an 84 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit.

JPMorgan increased $4.86, or 12 percent, to $45.72, its steepest gain since 2002. Bank of America added $3.18, or 8.5 percent, to $40.57, its biggest rally in eight years cashadvance. Citigroup advanced the most since October 2002, climbing $1.96 to $26.36.

Ambac Financial rallied $5.73, or 72 percent, to $13.70. MBIA Inc. increased $4.08 to $16.61.

Centex, the third-largest house builder by revenue, climbed $4.55, or 20 percent, to $27.22. D.R. Horton, the fourth-biggest, added $1.55, or 12 percent, to $14.45.

Tyco International Ltd. climbed $2.68, or 8 percent, to $36.40. The world’s biggest maker of security and fire systems raised its 2008 forecast.

United Technologies Corp. climbed $3.74 to $70.98 for the biggest rise since April 2006. The maker of Otis elevators, Pratt & Whitney jet engines and Sikorsky helicopters said fourth-quarter profit rose 23 percent.

EBay Inc. advanced $1.81 to $28.94. The largest Internet auction site gave up all of the gains in extended trading after forecasting 2008 sales and profit that trailed some estimates.

Google Inc. slumped $35.73, or 6.1 percent, to $548.62 for the biggest decline since February 2006. UBS AG said it was "cautious" on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings. Google will report after markets close Jan. 31.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s second- biggest copper miner, declined $4.22 to $77.30 after fourth-quarter profit fell 2.8 percent.

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If anyone needed confirmation that ingénue Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke is suddenly worried sick about the U.S. economy, yesterday’s "inter-meeting" slashing of the federal funds rate is it.

The gentlemen’s club known as the Federal Open Market Committee (two of the committee’s alternate members are women) voted 8 to 1 to cut the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, citing a deepening of the housing contraction and a tightening of credit among the reasons for the move.

It’s easy to dip into arcane language when the committee is the subject of the day, but there are two key points to keep in mind.

The first is that the cut was surprisingly big.

The second is that amidst the market noise and the paucity of positive economic news south of the border, the committee moved aggressively in advance of its pre-scheduled meeting, set for next Wednesday.

We’ve seen this agitated anxiety before. Recall Sept. 17, 2001, the Monday when markets reopened after the devastation of 9/11.

Alan Greenspan was chair of the Federal Reserve then and, after an emergency meeting, announced a cut of half a percentage point.

Greenspan made the simple observation that cutting interest rates makes it easier for people to borrow and spend. Consumers, you may recall, were urged to spend, spend, spend in order to save America.

The message here is that inter-meeting rate adjustments don’t happen often and usually only in extreme circumstances.

Thus it’s fair to criticize Bernanke for failing to monitor shrewdly the current unravelling of the U.S. economy, which, even considering the big-bank writedowns, has been pushed incrementally to the brink by internal, friendly interests as opposed to explosively by hostile, external marauders.

Writing in the New York Times Magazine this past Sunday, Roger Lowenstein profiled the Federal Reserve chair, finding him both likeable and wanting. Bernanke has been "unable to re-instill a sense of confidence," Lowenstein wrote, in what, by the way, is a superb feature no checking account payday advance. In Lowenstein’s assessment, Bernanke failed to connect housing foreclosures with its ultimate effects. "Perhaps worst of all," Lowenstein continues, "he has failed to persuade investors that the Federal Reserve, which was formed in 1913 for the very purpose of halting market panics, is up to the job."

Granted, Bernanke has not been dealt an easy hand. The groundwork, at least in terms of the housing crisis, had been firmly laid long before his investiture. But that fact only supports the view that Bernanke should have been able to see the landscape of the housing crisis before him. David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, is quoted in the New York Times piece saying Bernanke is "seriously behind the curve."

The Federal Reserve chair appears to be in good company. Yesterday, U.S. President George W. Bush announced the creation of the President’s Advisory Council on Financial Literacy. "Sometimes people in this country don’t know what they are looking at," the president said, referring to Jack and Jill subprime mortgage holders.

He could have been referring to the big bankers who have professed shockingly slight knowledge of the off-balance-sheet packaged investments that have wiped out earnings.

It is against such opacity that Bernanke has to now test his belief, as Lowenstein presents it, that economic science is enough to guide central bankers. For all his faults, Greenspan put great stock in the power and unpredictability of investor psychology. Bernanke is charting a different course.

"To prove that he is right," Lowenstein concludes, "Bernanke will need to minimize or, if possible, avoid the looming recession that looks ever more likely."

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The yen rose against 14 of the 16 most-active currencies as signs credit-market losses are worsening prompted investors to pare carry trades, where they use funds from Japan to buy higher-yielding assets.

The yen had its biggest gain against the euro in a week as UBS AG said 2008 will probably be another “difficult” year for financial services companies and the New York Times reported Merrill Lynch & Co. may write down $15 billion from mortgage- related losses. The Canadian dollar fell versus all 16 major currencies after the economy unexpectedly lost jobs last month.

“The market is very skittish,” said Mark Meadows, a strategist at currency-trading company Tempus Consulting Inc. in Washington. “Nobody knows how much the banks lost on subprime mortgages. When we hear this kind of news, stocks sell off and the yen strengthens.”

The yen advanced to 109.04 per dollar at 11:16 a.m. in New York, from 109.33 yesterday, declining 0.4 percent this week. It advanced to 161.31 per euro, from 161.88, falling 0.8 percent in the past five days. The dollar traded at $1.4792 against the euro, from $1.4804.

Japan’s currency surged 1.2 percent against Canada’s currency to 106.95 yen, while climbing 0.5 percent to 17.19 per Swedish krona, which declined versus 15 of 16 major currencies.

Canada’s Dollar

Canada’s dollar fell for a sixth day against its U.S. counterpart, the longest losing streak since March, as the economy lost 18,700 jobs in December. The Canadian currency touched C$1.0222 per U.S. dollar, the lowest since Dec. 17.

The U.K.’s pound fell to as low as 75.87 pence per euro, the weakest since the single currency’s introduction in 1999, before trading at 75.51 pence from 75.48 yesterday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index fell 1.9 percent to 14,110.79, the lowest since Nov. 15, 2005. Stocks in the U.S. and Europe weakened. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.7 percent.

Investors exited carry trades, in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the two. The risk is that currency moves erase those profits.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said the country’s economic growth is slowing “for the time being” as housing investment declines.

`Risk Aversion’

“The yen’s only strength comes from risk aversion,” said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist in New York at currency dealer DailyFX.com. “2008 will be the year when interest rates globally will compress, and that’s negative for the carry trades.”

The yen will trade between 107 and 111 per dollar in the next two weeks, Schlossberg said.

The Australian dollar, a favorite of the carry trade, depreciated 0.4 percent to 97.54 yen.

Japan’s benchmark interest rate of 0.5 percent is the lowest among major economies no fax payday loan. Interest rates are 8.25 percent in New Zealand, 6.75 percent in Australia, 5.5 percent in the U.K. and 4 percent for the 15 countries that share the euro.

Merrill is trying to raise $4 billion from investors in the U.S., Asia and the Middle East to shore up its finances, the New York Times said, citing people it said were briefed on the plan. The bank is expected to disclose the loss when it reports earnings next week, the newspaper said.

Zurich-based UBS, Europe’s biggest bank by assets, urged shareholders to support its plan to raise 13 billion Swiss francs ($11.8 billion) from Government of Singapore Investment Corp. and an unidentified Middle Eastern investor, according to a letter posted on its Web site.

`Strengthening Further’

“Merrill’s writedown is unsettling,” said Carl Forcheski, vice president on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale SA in New York. “The fact that more of this kind of bad news is coming prolongs the agony in the market. The yen is vulnerable to strengthening further.”

The yen may touch 107.23 per dollar in the next two weeks, Forcheski said. The Japanese currency touched that level on Nov. 26, the strongest since June 2005.

One-month implied volatility for the yen against the British pound rose to 14.75 percent, from 14.2 percent yesterday. A rise in volatility tends to discourage carry trades as it makes profits more unpredictable.

Dollar’s Weekly Decline

The dollar headed for a third consecutive weekly decline versus the euro, the longest losing streak since the period ended Nov. 9. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said more interest-rate cuts “may well be necessary.”

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday kept borrowing costs unchanged and said the central bank will “not tolerate” an inflation spiral.

Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show 68 percent odds the Fed will cut its target rate of 4.25 percent for overnight bank loans by a half-percentage point on Jan. 30.

“I’m in the dollar-bear camp,” said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign-exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. “Economic standings in other countries are faring better than ours. The dollar needs to depreciate another 4 to 5 percent before it starts to offer value.”
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RETAIL sales and job figures yesterday bolstered confidence that strong domestic demand can help keep Australian corporate profits healthy this year.

November retail sales rose by 0.8 per cent above October’s figure, as consumers kept spending.

This was despite an interest rate hike, market turmoil and higher living costs.

The spending jump easily beat the 0.5 per cent average analyst forecast, as strong gains in the hospitality, clothing and some retail sectors made up for softer department store and recreational goods sales.

November quarter labour market data, also released yesterday, shows the jobs picture remains tight.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the vacancy rate soared 6 per cent to record highs, meaning there are now fewer than three unemployed people going for every vacant job.

The retail sales and jobs data were seen as intensifying the Reserve Bank’s inflation concerns, raising the likelihood of a quarter-point increase in the official cash rate to 7 per cent early this year, despite arbitrary moves in recent weeks by some major lenders.

But UBS economist Adam Carr said while interest rate increases early this year should moderate the pace of 2008 domestic growth, tax cuts and strong jobs growth, coupled with buoyant income, should help ensure consumer spending held up well.

Shares in retailers fell on concerns of another interest rate rise. Harvey Norman lost 31? to $6.18, David Jones 11? to $5.13, Woolworths 70? to $32.33 and JB Hi-Fi 26? to $13.68. Coles-owner Wesfarmers lost 89? to $39.09.

CommSec analysts said retail spending could be expected to slow “somewhat” over 2008 in response to higher living costs but agreed the key supports of strong job and population growth would underpin domestic consumer spending.

CommSec chief equities economist Craig James said the retail data and job market strength showed an Australian economy “going gangbusters”, with consumers effectively teflon coated, with no bad news sticking.

He said the strong November retail sales data reinforced optimism and there was “more than enough” domestic strength to keep corporate profits in Australia strong despite the weaker US economy and uncertain implications for global growth.

“November had everything – higher food prices, a rate hike and a federal election but still consumers kept spending,” Mr James said http://payday-z.com. “And it’s not hard to see why. The job market is the strongest in a generation, wages are rising and spending levels are being boosted by the biggest migration boom in Australia’s history.

“The positives . . . have been more than enough to outweigh negatives of rising housing, petrol and food costs,” he said.

Analysts widely expect the Reserve Bank to raise the official cash rate early this year to slow the economy’s pace and prevent overheating.

But the jury is out as to whether it will boost the official rate to 7 per cent at its February 5 meeting or wait for more clarity on the outlook for global growth, given US recession fears.

Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said crucial to the RBA’s thinking would be the scale of the US slowdown amid fears the general economy there is being engulfed in the crisis that began with the collapse in mortgage loans to high-risk borrowers.

“The strength of inflation here would normally have drawn a rate rise and the retail sales data reinforce the RBA’s tightening bias, but the timing is still uncertain,” Mr Hassan said. “There are still dark clouds over the global economy.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia upped rates by a quarter of a point at its August and November meetings.

But it stayed on the sidelines in December, saying while it was concerned about inflation there was the potential that higher borrowing costs and international economic uncertainty could act to curb inflationary pressures.

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