China lays road to global role with economic cement
Last week hosting the Americans. Next week visiting Russia. China’s busy diplomacy amid the economic crisis reflects growing sway that some say has brought the moment for Beijing to don the cape of a full super-power.
Many Chinese observers think the woes besetting the wealthy West will help Beijing win a bigger global role, but that expectation comes tethered to warnings China should not oversell its strength - above all, not imagine dislodging U.S. dominance or the dollar any time soon.
“The leadership is fully aware that the United States will continue to dominate despite the financial crisis,” said Zheng Yongnian, director of the East Asia Institute of the National University of Singapore, who often travels to China.
“China does see opportunities to accelerate its rise, but it’s still far from becoming an overall super-power.”
That caution will be on display next week when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Russia for the first summit of the “BRIC” nations, Brazil, Russia, India and China.
The four fast-growing countries may discuss ways to reduce reliance on the United States, but it is Moscow, not Beijing, that has been most vocal about diversifying away from U.S. government bonds and making the Chinese yuan a global reserve currency.
Just last week, when U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was in Beijing to reassure his hosts about the safety of their vast dollar holdings, Chinese leaders made it clear they, too, wanted to see a strong U.S. economy.
China, however, knows well that the game has changed. Its growing prominence is rubbing against its ingrained preference for a muted international role paydayadvance.
The line of foreign governments looking to Beijing for an economic boost has raised the question of how far China should use its vast savings and continued growth during the global slump to advance broader national goals.
“There was initially some uncertainty about the strategic impact of the financial crisis,” said Yan Xuetong, a prominent international relations expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
“But now we’re seeing clearly that the crisis will lift China’s international status … With countries asking China for its money, it’s found its international influence has also expanded.”
The discussion is also about the right limits for China’s ambitions. The rejection of Chinese company Chinalco’s tie-up with global miner Rio Tinto last week underscored the pitfalls Beijing faces in extending its reach.
Some nationalists say the economic slump marks the end of American preeminence. But most analysts close to the government stress China remains tied to the much bigger U.S. market and does not have the strength to challenge Washington.
Beijing hopes to boost economic and resource security, regional influence and diplomatic reach without riling the United States and its allies, said Zheng.
“China will continue to climb up the ladder,” he said. “But it does not want revolutionary change in the international system.”