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Just 302,000 new homes were sold in 2011, 6.2% below 2010 and the lowest number of annual sales since the government started tracking home sales in 1963.

In December, sales of single-family homes fell 2.2% month-over-month to an annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

A consensus of experts from Briefing.com had forecast an annual rate of sales of 321,000 for December. The actual result was a 6.9% decline from 12 months earlier, when homes sold at a 329,000 annual rate.

The dismal report was a reversal of other recent housing market trends. Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales rose for the third straight month in December and the Census Bureau said that construction of new homes had been gaining ground.

Pat Newport, an industry analyst with IHS Global Insight, did not put much stock in the December new-home sales report, however. "They’re not statistically significant," he said. "I think the other recent numbers, like on housing starts and permits, give a more accurate picture of the current trends in the market."

Construction gains late in the year indicate that the new home market is picking up, he said.

Still, he added, these are the lowest new home sales numbers for the nation as a whole and for three of the four regions ever recorded. Only the Midwest escaped notching a new a record low.

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The median home price for homes sold during December was $210,300 and there was a 6.1-month supply of homes at the current rate of sales.

Getting new home construction healthy again would help revitalize the economy. For every 100 homes built, 300 jobs are created, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. "Half of those are on construction sites and the other half are people building appliances, cabinets, carpets and other goods for the home," he said.

He’s forecasting an 18% rise in new homes sales this year. Newport, of IHS Global, is predicting a slightly lower gain of about 15%. 

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The director of the International Monetary Fund said Monday that Europe needs a stronger financial firewall to stop the spread of debt contagion in the eurozone.

Speaking in Berlin, IMF chief Christine Lagarde supported a plan to fold the resources of the European Financial Stability Facility into its permanent replacement, known as the European Stability Mechanism, which has yet to be fully established.

The EFSF is valued at €440 billion, while the ESM is expected to have €500 billion in lending capacity. Combining the funds could result in a total firewall worth €1 trillion, according to eurozone officials.

The goal is to shield larger euro area economies from the debt crisis that has pushed Greece to the brink of default and resulted in bailouts for Ireland and Portugal.

"We need a larger firewall," said Lagarde. "Without it, countries like Italy and Spain, that are fundamentally able to repay their debts, could potentially be forced into a solvency crisis by abnormal financing costs."

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Lagarde stressed that the ESM should be funded with "real tangible capital," as opposed to the loan guarantees that make up the EFSF.

The comments came as finance ministers from the 17 nations that use the euro currency, known as the Eurogroup, met to discuss ways to speed up implementation of the ESM. They are also expected to hash out the details of the fiscal pact European leaders proposed in December.

In addition to calling for a stronger firewall, Lagarde said eurozone officials need to do more to boost economic growth, which could include additional action by the European Central Bank.

Lagarde also said the eurozone needs to move toward greater "fiscal integration." She pointed to a number of options for "fiscal risk-sharing," including the creation of so-called euro bonds, an idea that has proved controversial.

She welcomed steps the ECB has taken so far, including a long-term lending program that has already pumped nearly €500 billion into the banking system payday loans in one hour.

"That has helped enormously," Lagarde said, adding that "there is a role for the ECB to play in terms of monetary policy."

European banks need to raise more capital, but they must do so in a way that will not cause credit conditions to contract, cautioned Lagarde.

She said governments with large deficits need to continue to tighten public finances, although she warned the aggressive budget cuts could increase the risk of a deeper recession. However, nations that are in better financial shape should contribute to the "common effort" by scaling back fiscal consolidation, she added.

World Bank warns on risk of global recession

Separately, Lagarde said the IMF will lower its growth forecasts for "many part of the world" when it releases an update to its World Economic Outlook early Tuesday.

She called on global policymakers to do what is necessary to prevent a deeper decline, saying last year’s economic problems were driven "by a lack of a collective determination to reach a cooperative solution."

"Now the world must find the political will to do what it knows must be done," she said.

While the debt crisis in Europe is the biggest threat, Lagarde also pointed to the challenges facing the U.S. economy.

"The United States, as the world’s largest economy and the center of the global financial system, has a special responsibility," she said.

Despite signs of a modest recovery, the U.S. economy remains hindered by high unemployment and a weak housing market.

In addition, U.S. policymakers need to get past the "partisan impasse" on how to reduce the nation’s long-term debts, without stifling economic growth, she said. 

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Don’t toss out that full carton of orange juice sitting in your refrigerator just yet.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is testing all orange juice and orange juice concentrate shipments as well as products at domestic manufacturers, but the regulating agency says "consumers can be confident that the orange juice in their refrigerators is safe."

Here’s what you need to know.

Why is the FDA testing OJ? Last month, Coca-Cola alerted the FDA that it detected low levels of a fungicide in its own and in competitors’ orange juice and in juice concentrates from Brazil following routine tests.

As a precautionary measure, the FDA has halted imports of orange juice and orange juice concentrates from all over the world, and is testing each shipment for the fungicide carbendazim. The FDA said it will deny entry of any imported orange juice products that test at 10 parts per billion or higher for carbendazim, which is still a very low level.

As of Friday, the FDA said it has collected samples from 31 shipments. Twenty-eight are still pending analysis, but three shipments of orange juice and orange juice concentrates were negative for carbendazim, and will be released by the FDA.

What is carbendazim? Carbendazim is a chemical fungicide that is legal in most parts of the world, including Canada, Japan, Europe and Brazil.

The FDA said that industry reports indicated the carbendazim was in orange juice products from the 2011 crop in Brazil, where the fungicide is used to combat a type of mold that grows on orange trees known as black spot.

In the United States, however, the Environmental Protection Agency has not approved the use of carbendazim as a fungicide, and under U.S. law, it’s considered an unlawful pesticide chemical residue.

Is carbendazim dangerous? The EPA has conducted a preliminary risk assessment on carbendazim and determined that levels under 80 parts per billion (ppb) in orange juice do not raise safety concerns.

In the original tests, Coca-Cola (, Fortune 500) detected between 10 ppb and 35 ppb in orange juice products of its own and those of its competitors. Coca-Cola makes Minute Maid, Simply Orange and Odwalla.

However, the EPA is continuing to conduct risk assessments, and said it will have more results next week.

How much orange juice comes from Brazil? About 75% of all orange juice consumed locally is supplied domestically, and the rest is imported, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

However, of the remaining juice that is imported, Brazil is the largest contributor. In 2010, the South American country shipped over 171 million gallons of orange juice to the United States, accounting for more than 56% of all orange juice imports that year.

But overall, only 11% of all orange juice consumed in the U bad credit personal loan lenders.S. comes from Brazil, according to the USDA.

U.S. companies import orange juice from Brazil because of unpredictable weather conditions in Florida — hurricanes and freezing temperatures — which can negatively impact that state’s orange crops.

Is is possible that the orange juice in my fridge has carbendazim? Yes. But because the levels of carbendazim that have been detected are not harmful, the FDA said it has "determined that requiring a recall or the destruction of orange juice products" is not necessary.

In fact, the competitor products that Coca-Cola tested were "currently marketed finished products," meaning they were purchased off grocery store shelves.

Tropicana orange juice, which is owned by PepsiCo (, Fortune 500), contains orange juice from the U.S. and Brazil, according to package labels. But the company said it made an "unrelated decision some months ago" to transition to 100% Florida orange juice for its Pure Premium juices, which do not include orange juice concentrate.

Tropicana said it is already the largest buyer of Florida oranges, so the transition only requires a "minor supply chain adjustment" that will be completed by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, PepsiCo’s Naked Juice products are made only from oranges grown in the United States, the company said.

Similarly, Florida’s Natural, which competes with Coca-Cola and PepsiCo’s orange juice products, prides itself on only using oranges that are grown by U.S. farmers in Florida.

Trader Joe’s said that although its orange juices are only made with oranges sourced from Florida, California and Mexico, its orange juice suppliers are conducting additional testing in light of recent concerns.

The FDA has confirmed that it is also testing samples of finished orange juice products and orange juice concentrates at domestic manufacturers, and said the sampling and analysis will be completed in the next few weeks. The agency said if it identifies a brand of orange juice that presents a public health risk due to levels of carbendazim, it will issue a recall.

How will this affect orange juice prices? On Tuesday, March orange juice futures spiked almost 10%, or 20 cents, to $2.07 a pound on the ICE Futures Exchange, which traders said was the highest level since 1977.

Futures reversed course on Wednesday, 9%, to $1.881 per pound. And on Thursday, orange juice futures retreated another 5.6%. On Friday, futures popped 8%.

Traders say huge spikes in orange juice futures could result in price bumps at the grocery store.

Coca-Cola said it could not comment on whether the discoveries would affect pricing of its orange juice products.  

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Everybody knows that January predicts the stock market’s direction for the year and that the best time to sell stocks is at their spring peak. And among stock market experts, it’s a sure bet that the market will soar in the year before an election.

But what passes for stock market wisdom is suspect when given a closer look. The most common error comes when people spot two events and assume that one causes the other.

And it drives economists, math geeks and plenty of money managers nuts.

“If you look at enough data in enough different ways, you’re going to find something that isn’t really true,” says Edward Keon, who leads a mathematics team at Prudential Financial.

The same seasonal patterns seem to pop up year after year. Some are valuable and some meaningless, Keon says _ like saying stocks tend to rise or fall depending on the month, the temperature in New York City or who wins the Super Bowl.

People “are simply being fooled by randomness,” says Burton Malkiel, professor of economics at Princeton University and author of the finance classic “A Random Walk Down Wall Street.”

Spend enough time digging through numbers and you’re bound to find some that always take the same path, he says. “But none can reliably predict the future.”

Here’s an examination of some of the oldest Wall Street aphorisms.

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The claim: As goes January, so goes the year.

The idea is that January works as a barometer for the stock market’s full-year performance: A strong first month often leads to a year of gains, and a weak one to a year of losses.

It comes from Yale Hirsch, father of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, and looks reliable. Since 1929, the calendar year has followed January’s lead 60 out of 83 times, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s. That’s a .723 batting average.

The suggestion that January somehow directs the course of the next 11 months is what irks economists and investors, including Dan Greenhaus, chief market strategist at the brokerage BTIG.

Expecting to hear praise for January’s forecasting powers, Greenhaus attacked the idea on his blog Jan. 2, the day before U.S. markets opened for 2012. He took the S&P 500 index’s returns since 1950, including dividends, and found that the four months following January also appeared to work magic. When April is down, the next 12 months return a negative 0.2 percent. When April is up, the S&P 500 returns 12.8 percent. It’s a similar story with February, March and April. But why?

“It’s true that if January is up, the year is up most of the time,” he says. “But if you look at any month, you’ll find the market tends to be up over the next 12 months. And the reason is very simple: the market tends to be up.”

The S&P 500 has climbed in three out of every four years since 1950. Pick nearly any month in which stocks rose and most of the time you’ll find that the year was headed in the same direction.

But what if stocks fall in January? It doesn’t mean the next 11 months will follow. Sometimes, the stock market starts the year in a hole and digs its way out. In 1992, the S&P 500 dropped 2 percent in January, then ended the year with a modest gain of 4.5 percent.

“If you’re starting in the hole, then the 12-month period is starting in the hole,” Greenhaus says. “That should be intuitive. Instead it gets treated as some sort of prognostication tool. It’s just what happens.”

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The claim: Sell in May and go away.

Like a flock of migrating birds, the stock market tends to travel south or north depending on the season. It rises through the winter months and falls late in the spring. Investors struggle through the summer until November rolls around and the market picks up again.

“Sell in May and go away” is a well-worn saying, but the numbers seem to back it up. Since 1990, the three months starting in July have been the worst quarter for the S&P 500. Last year, the S&P hit its peak on April 29, then hit bottom Oct. 3, right on cue.

Even many skeptics think “sell in May” probably has something going for it _ but they can only guess why.

“It’s harder to debunk this one,” says Nick Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group.

The flow of money into retirement plans and mutual funds may have something to do with it. Colas says databases that track cash moving into stock funds show patterns similar to the stock market trend: A strong start that evaporates as the year progresses.

In the first four months of 2011, Americans added $13 billion to U.S. stock funds, according to the Investment Company Institute. But they pulled $6.5 billion in May and then began withdrawing much more. By the end of the year, retail investors had pulled $131.8 billion out of U.S. stock funds.

Some tie the summer sluggishness to vacation season. Trading desks are thinly staffed in the weeks before Labor Day. Fewer traders means a drop in trading volume, which makes it easier for markets to take bigger swings, often down.

Here’s where that explanation falls short. Traders return to their desks after Labor Day in September and trading picks up. But for all major stock indexes, September is historically the worst month of the year. Since 1950, it’s the only month in which the stock market has fallen more than it has risen.

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In a story Jan. 4 about The Boeing Co.’s announcement that it is closing its plant in Wichita, Kan., The Associated Press reported erroneously that the closure will cost 2,160 workers their jobs. An unspecified number of those workers will be allowed to transfer to the company’s plants in other states cheap pay day loans.

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It was pretty clear from the start that this week’s news that Saudi Arabia is buying 84 new F-15 fighters from The Boeing Co. would have a big impact on the St. Louis region.

Today, the Regional Chamber and Growth Association took a stab at counting just how big.

While the $30 billion deal is not expected to create any new jobs, it will prolong production of the F-15, which is largely built at Boeing’s plant in north county, by about five years, through 2020.

That production supports about 1,000 manufacturing jobs at Boeing, and contribute to nearly 4,000 more through local suppliers and spinoff activity, according to RCGA economist Ruth Sergenian. Those direct jobs generate $1.1 billion a year in wages and other economic activity, and the indirect impact is another roughly $1.8 billion.

It’s worth noting that these sort of estimates are notoriously rough, and that something else might well fill the void were Boeing’s F-15 production to go away. But, for now, it’s not, and 2.9 billion more dollars flowing through the region’s economy every year is a pretty good thing.

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India’s central bank held key interest rates steady Friday as it struggles to foster growth amid high inflation, disappointing businesses who were looking for more drastic action.

The Reserve Bank of India kept the short-term lending rate, or repo rate, at 8.5 percent and the reverse repo rate _ the rate it pays to banks for deposits, at 7.5 percent. The bank also kept the cash reserve ratio for commercial lenders unchanged.

“Downside risks to growth have clearly increased,” the bank said in a statement. “However, it must be emphasized that inflation risks remain high.”

The bank’s 13 rate hikes since March 2010 are starting to choke growth in Asia’s third largest economy. Growth slipped to a two year low of 6.9 percent in the September quarter and industrial production fell 5.1 percent in October, its first contraction since June 2009. But inflation remains above 9 percent.

“I would like to see RBI do a major rate cut now,” B. Muthuraman, president of the Confederation of Indian Industry and vice chairman of Tata Steel, told CNBC-TV18 before the policy decision.

He said he would have liked the bank to cut rates by half a percentage point and reduce the cash reserve ratio to boost lending. That would help small and medium sized businesses _ which are crucial to jobs and output in India’s manufacturing sector _ get more affordable financing to grow.

“Government inaction is a big cause of concern for industry,” Muthuraman said, citing coal shortages, land acquisition difficulties and slow decision making. “We can have a growth rate in excess of 8 percent, if only we’d had reforms. It’s a very sad story.”

The rupee, which has been trading at record lows, strengthened Friday, after the central bank took to steps to curb speculation.

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British tour operator Thomas Cook said Wednesday it will close 200 stores after tourism to Tunisia and Egypt dried up in the wake of the protests earlier this year.

Europe’s second largest tour operator said it will cut 661 jobs and close 115 of its stores immediately, with the remainder going over the next two years.

The group also reported its final year results Wednesday, after postponing their release as it sought new agreements with its creditors. It said its operating profit fell 16 percent to 303.6 million pounds ($471 million).

The company said it has already begun selling off 200 million pounds worth of assets and will suspend dividend payments until the balance sheet improves.

Thomas Cook said it had been hit by several external shocks in the last few years. It suffered badly when the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland shut off European airspace in April 2010.

It also said that the Arab Spring had resulted in a dramatic fall in travel to Middle East and North African destinations and that its operations in Britain and France had underperformed as its traditional customer base of families with young children who holiday in its all-inclusive beach resorts decided to stay home instead.

Thomas Cook shares were down 7 percent to 13.75 pence in morning trading.

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