Finance topics

February 5, 2012

Credit raters’ broken image

Filed under: Homes, Loans — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 12:56 am

So many times when the big credit-rating companies have embarrassed themselves, the world has sighed and chalked it up to a business model that by design invites corruption and incompetence. Perhaps never before have the public’s expectations for the industry been lower.

The fundamental flaw is that the major rating companies, led by Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s, typically are paid by the issuers of the securities they rate, or by other deeply interested parties, such as Wall Street underwriters. Too often the raters seem to be the last to know that a company they dubbed investment grade was going broke, or that a mortgage bond once deemed AAA was about to default. The public sees these things and naturally draws a link between what the raters say and how they are compensated.

Although the government can’t make the credit raters more capable, it can make them more transparent. Here’s a good place to begin: Start requiring disclosures of how much the raters’ clients pay them for their services.

Consider some of the boilerplate in Moody’s reports on MF Global Holdings Ltd., whose credit ratings were the subject of a congressional hearing last week. Moody’s Oct. 27 report — in which it downgraded MF Global to junk, only four days before the futures broker filed for bankruptcy — said most issuers of debt securities pay “fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000″ for “appraisal and rating services.”

It’s anyone’s guess whether the fees MF Global paid to Moody’s fell within or outside this range. The companies know how much money changed hands. They’re just not telling us.

The disclosures in Standard & Poor’s reports are just as useless. The company’s Oct. 26 report on MF Global said “S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors.” Coincidence or not, S&P maintained an investment-grade mark on MF Global until the day it failed.

There’s no such secrecy about the fees other types of opinion vendors charge their clients. For more than a decade, U.S. public companies have been required to disclose the annual fees they pay their outside auditors. Similarly, when companies hire stock promoters or other firms to publish research reports profiling their shares, federal securities laws require disclosures in the reports showing who paid for them, as well as the amount and form of compensation.

The auditor-fee disclosures have been useful. Fannie Mae’s proxy statement for 2003, for instance, showed the housing financier paid KPMG $2.7 million to audit its books that year.

The fee was so tiny, for a company with $1 trillion of assets, that it served as a red flag for investors, signaling that KPMG’s audit quality couldn’t have been all that robust. The next year Fannie Mae had a huge accounting scandal.

At the other extreme, in its first annual report as a public company, Blackstone Group LP said it paid its auditor, Deloitte & Touche, total fees of $159.1 million for 2007, mostly for nonaudit work. The fees were so huge — Blackstone’s total assets were $13.2 billion at the time — it would be reasonable for investors to wonder what influence they might have had on Deloitte’s judgment.

The parallels for credit-rating companies are obvious. Like auditors and stock promoters, they’re paid to express opinions to investors. Whatever their fees are, the public should be told. The credit raters would have us believe there’s nothing wrong with collecting cash from the same customers whose securities they grade, and that this doesn’t cloud their independence or objectivity. If that’s true, they should have no problem with us knowing the actual dollar amounts.

Unfortunately this isn’t the path the government has chosen. The Dodd-Frank Act, passed in 2010, included 19 pages of new provisions governing how credit-rating companies operate.

Numerous federal banking and securities laws were amended to remove statutory references to credit ratings, for instance, so that regulators would reduce their reliance on them. Dodd-Frank didn’t mandate disclosure of the raters’ fees, however.

A rule proposed last year by the Securities and Exchange Commission would require companies such as Moody’s and S&P to disclose in a form accompanying each credit rating whether the grade was paid for by the issuer, underwriter or sponsor of the security being rated — or if it was purchased by someone else, such as an investor. The rating company would also have to disclose if the purchaser had paid it for any other services, such as consulting or advisory work.

Most important, though, no dollar amounts would have to be divulged.

This is a mistake. A big reason that the public doesn’t trust credit ratings is because of the money that changes hands.

What matters most, obviously, is how much. It makes little difference whether the amounts are disclosed by the rating company or by the issuer of the securities as part of its own disclosures, as long as it’s made public somewhere.

The most dubious penny-stock promoters have to disclose what they get paid for their opinions. Credit raters can at least be held to the same standards.

Source

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February 1, 2012

Facebook readies for blockbuster IPO

Filed under: news, technology — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 7:04 pm

Facebook’s long-awaited IPO filing is imminent, according to several news reports.

The Wall Street Journal kicked off the hoopla on Friday, citing anonymous sources who said that Facebook may file for an initial public offering as early as this Wednesday.

The New York Times and CNBC echoed that with their own unnamed sources in articles posted late Tuesday, saying that the filing will land Wednesday. Facebook is seeking to raise up to $5 billion in its offering, they added.

If that number is correct, Facebook would represent by far the largest global IPO ever by an Internet-focused company, according to data from Dealogic. Google’s (, Fortune 500) $1.9 billion debut is currently the largest U.S. Internet IPO.

But Facebook would still lag behind blockbuster U.S. IPOs like those from Visa (, Fortune 500), which raised more than $19 billion in 2008, and General Motors (, Fortune 500), which raised $18 billion last year.

Facebook’s IPO filing won’t answer one burning question: What’s the company worth? For that, Wall Street will have to wait until Facebook starts trading, which typically happens several months after companies file their first round of regulatory paperwork.

Some experts have suggested that the social network could valued between $75 billion and $100 billion once it starts trading. No matter what the market cap, Facebook’s IPO is undeniably hot, says Max Wolff, chief economist at GreenCrest Capital.

But there’s a lot more riding on Facebook’s paperwork than wealth creation. The social network has become an entire ecosystem, supporting independent app makers and gaming platforms like Zynga ().

Facebook’s filing will have implications for companies that depend on it, as well as the social media landscape at large. Until then, analysts are left to speculate about Facebook’s revenue streams and profitability — and whether it really deserves a $100 billion market value.

Michael Pachter, a research analyst at Wedbush Securities, says the rumored valuation range is reasonable — though he won’t cite a specific estimate of his own.

How Facebook makes money — and could make more: The vast majority of Facebook’s revenue comes from advertising: a combination of search and display ads. And the sales growth is incredibly robust.

Research firm eMarketer estimated last September that Facebook’s ad revenue would more than double in 2011 to $3.8 billion and increase another 52% to $5.78 billion in 2012.

Facebook has grown by grabbing market share from Google and Yahoo. Last year Facebook comprised 16.3% of the so-called display (i.e. banners and other graphical ads) market, eMarketer estimates — compared with Yahoo’s (, Fortune 500) 13.1% and Google’s (, Fortune 500) 9.3%.

Martin Pyykkonen, analyst at Wedge Partners, says Facebook is highly appealing to advertisers because about two-thirds of its users fall into the coveted age demographic of 18-49. He thinks Facebook’s ad targeting will become even more effective over time.

"The ‘Like’ button option is a basic example of targeting," Pyykkonen wrote in a note to clients Monday. "[It’s] likely that advertisers will be able to even better target their audiences as Facebook goes deeper with integrating apps, games, movies, music."

Facebook’s other revenue stream is its payment system for purchases within apps and games: Facebook Credits. Facebook keeps 30% of the revenue from those payments, and passes the remaining 70% on to the app developer.

Facebook Credits now comprises 10% of the company’s total revenue, up from 5% in early 2010, Pyykkonen estimates.

Those estimates will soon be backed up — or refuted — by hard numbers from Facebook. Once its IPO filing does finally land, it will help answer questions about the overall social media market.

"People are extrapolating outcomes into an environment that’s hungry for missing details," said Wolff. "It’s like all the guys in the class spreading rumors about the prettiest girl in the school."

– CNNMoney’s Maureen Farrell contributed reporting. 

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January 29, 2012

Egyptians vote for upper house of parliament

Filed under: Loans, online — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 8:32 am

Turnout was low as Egyptians voted on Sunday for the upper house of parliament, in elections that are the latest step in the country’s planned transition from military to civilian rule.

Few voters showed up to cast their ballots at polling stations in Cairo, one of 13 provinces where the first stage of elections for the largely advisory Shura Council are taking place. A second stage will take place on Feb. 14-15.

“We now feel we have a role in shaping the country’s future,” said Mohammed el-Hawari, a professor at Cairo’s Ain Shams University and one of those who did vote.

The Shura Council is composed of 270 members. Only two-thirds are elected while the rest are appointed.

Islamists dominated elections for the People’s Assembly, the more powerful of the two houses of parliament, in voting that ran from Nov. 28 through January. Turnout was heavy in these elections, which were the first since the Jan. 25-Feb. 11, 2011, mass uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak.

One secular party, the Free Egyptians, had announced that it was boycotting Shura Council elections to protest what it described as violations of Egypt’s election laws by Islamist parties during the People’s Assembly vote.

The secularists say that that Islamists made heavy use of religious slogans and campaigned too close to polling stations. Islamist spokesmen have denied using slogans inappropriately, and said that all groups campaigned too close to the stations.

Secular and liberal alliances, including youth parties which led the anti-Mubarak uprising, have performed poorly in elections.

Once the Shura Council elections are complete, according to Egypt’s transition plan, the parliament is tasked to select a 100-member panel to draft the country’s new constitution. The ruling military council which took power after Mubarak’s ouster is then scheduled to transfer power to an elected civilian president by the end of June.

The army generals have been accused of mismanaging the transitional period, of not carrying through sweeping reforms, and of keeping Mubarak’s regime intact.

The voting comes a few days after hundreds of thousands of Egyptians poured into the streets to mark the first anniversary of their uprising and to press the military council to step down.

Source

January 27, 2012

New-home sales hit a record low

Filed under: Finance, Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 5:32 pm

Just 302,000 new homes were sold in 2011, 6.2% below 2010 and the lowest number of annual sales since the government started tracking home sales in 1963.

In December, sales of single-family homes fell 2.2% month-over-month to an annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

A consensus of experts from Briefing.com had forecast an annual rate of sales of 321,000 for December. The actual result was a 6.9% decline from 12 months earlier, when homes sold at a 329,000 annual rate.

The dismal report was a reversal of other recent housing market trends. Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales rose for the third straight month in December and the Census Bureau said that construction of new homes had been gaining ground.

Pat Newport, an industry analyst with IHS Global Insight, did not put much stock in the December new-home sales report, however. "They’re not statistically significant," he said. "I think the other recent numbers, like on housing starts and permits, give a more accurate picture of the current trends in the market."

Construction gains late in the year indicate that the new home market is picking up, he said.

Still, he added, these are the lowest new home sales numbers for the nation as a whole and for three of the four regions ever recorded. Only the Midwest escaped notching a new a record low.

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The median home price for homes sold during December was $210,300 and there was a 6.1-month supply of homes at the current rate of sales.

Getting new home construction healthy again would help revitalize the economy. For every 100 homes built, 300 jobs are created, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. "Half of those are on construction sites and the other half are people building appliances, cabinets, carpets and other goods for the home," he said.

He’s forecasting an 18% rise in new homes sales this year. Newport, of IHS Global, is predicting a slightly lower gain of about 15%. 

Source

January 26, 2012

Fed: Slightly lower growth, unemployment in 2012

Filed under: Homes, online — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 2:32 am

The Federal Reserve has downgraded its outlook for U.S. economic growth this year but is slightly more optimistic about the unemployment rate.

The Fed expects the economy to grow between 2.2 percent and 2.7 percent in 2012, according to its updated economic forecasts released Wednesday. That’s down from November’s forecast of between 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent.

Many economists expect Europe will suffer a recession this year, which will slow U.S. growth.

Earlier Wednesday, the Fed noted the weak but growing economy when it said it doesn’t plan to raise its benchmark interest rate until late 2014. And some members wanted to push that back even further, according to new interest rate projections released with the quarterly forecasts.

Still, the Fed said it expects unemployment to fall low as 8.2 percent. That’s an improvement from November’s bottom rate of 8.5 percent.

In December, the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent _ the lowest level in nearly three years _ after the sixth straight month of solid hiring.

Inflation has been relatively tame and the Fed doesn’t see that changing over the next three years.

And for the first time, the Fed offered an official target for inflation _ 2 percent _ in a statement of its long-term policy goals. It had previously indicated that inflation between 1.7 percent and 2 percent was acceptable.

The Fed did not specify a target for unemployment. But it said that unemployment between 5.2 percent and 6 percent would be consistent with its goal for a healthy economy instant payday loan.

The updated quarterly forecasts also showed that some Fed members wanted to extend the period of record-low interest rates beyond 2014. Eleven of the 17 members said they don’t see interest rates rising until at least 2015. Only 10 members have a vote on the policy committee.

The Fed said record-low rates are still needed to help boost an improving but still sluggish economy. The extended timeframe is a shift from the Fed’s previous plan to keep the rate low at least until mid-2013.

The economy is looking a little better, according to recent private and government data. Companies are hiring more, the stock market is rising, factories are busy and more people are buying cars. Even the home market is showing slight gains after three dismal years.

Still, the threat of a recession in Europe is likely to drag on the global economy. And another year of weak wage gains in the United States could force consumers to pull back on spending, which would slow growth.

Private economists forecast that the nation’s economy to grow just 2 percent in the first three months of the year, in part because of the recession in Europe. For the year, they expect growth of 2.4 percent, according to a survey by the Associated Press. That’s sluggish for a recovery. But it is better than last year’s likely pace of below 2 percent.

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January 21, 2012

Monti Takes Ax to Mussolini-Era Guilds to Spur Italy Growth - Bloomberg

Filed under: Finance, Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 8:08 am

Prime Minister Mario Monti

January 9, 2012

SNB

Filed under: Finance, marketing — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 4:20 am

Swiss (SNBN) National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand will today answer lawmaker questions in Bern as he seeks to end a discussion over controversial currency purchases by his wife.

Hildebrand will submit e-mails to parliament today that show his wife acted alone in making foreign currency trades that led to calls for him to resign, Der Sonntag reported yesterday, without saying where it got the information. SNB spokeswoman Silvia Oppliger declined to comment.

January 6, 2012

U.S. Consumer Comfort Climbs to 5-Month High - Bloomberg

Filed under: Homes, management — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 3:52 pm

Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose last week to the highest level in more than five months and the pace of firings declined, showing an improving job market is bolstering the biggest part of the economy.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (COMFCOMF) climbed to minus 44.8 in the period ended Dec. 31, the best reading since mid-July, from minus 47.5 the prior week. Applications for jobless benefits (INJCJC) decreased by 15,000 during the same time to 372,000, according to Labor Department figures.

A pickup in hiring will further lift Americans

January 3, 2012

Construction spending near 1-1/2 high in November

Filed under: Business, technology — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 10:04 am

Construction spending surged to a near 1-1/2 year high in November as investment in public and private projects rose solidly, cementing expectations of

strong economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Construction spending increased 1.2 percent to an annual rate of $807.1 billion, the highest level since June 2010, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.

Spending in October was revised to a 0.2 percent fall, after initially reported as a 0.8 percent rise.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected construction spending to rise 0.5 percent in November.

Overall construction spending was up 0.5 percent compared to November 2010.

Private construction spending rose 1.0 percent, advancing for a fourth straight month. Spending on residential projects increased 2.0 percent, with solid gains in both multifamily and single family homes.

The housing market is showing some signs of recovery, with builders breaking more ground on new projects to meet growing demand for rental apartments. It is becoming less of a drag on the economy and is expected to significantly add to growth in 2012.

Private nonresidential construction was flat in November after declining 0.6 percent the prior month.

Spending on public sector construction rebounded 1.7 percent in November as outlays on federal projects jumped 5.3 percent after dropping 7.5 percent in October.

State and local government spending rose 1.3 percent after falling 1.2 percent the prior month.

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January 1, 2012

Singapore GDP Slowed to 4.8% as Lee Predicts

Filed under: Uncategorized, marketing — Tags: , , , — Gogo @ 10:28 am

Singapore

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