Finance topics

Austin Water will begin this week a $31.8 million stimulus-funded treatment plant project that will create 150 jobs, increase energy efficiency and reduce operational costs.

On Wednesday, the group will break ground on upgrades to the Hornsby Bend Biosolids Management Plant, which processes biosolids from treated wastewater. The zero interest, 30-year loan came from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's Clean Water State Revolving Fund distributed through the Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Water Development Board.

About $7 million will be used to construct a 15-acre composting pad for "Dillo Dirt," a popular soil conditioner produced from city yard waste and treated biosolids Business Card Holders. Chasco Constructors was awarded the contract for that project in December.

The rest of the funds will upgrade biosolid treatment infrastructure and improve energy efficiency. The changes will enhance odor control, increase sludge dewatering capacity and reduce operational costs.

Once completed, the plant will use less petroleum-based polymers and increase production and capture of digester gases, which can be used to generate electricity.

Matous Constructors was chosen to complete that project.

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The top transit official for President Barack Obama’s administration will be in Denver Friday announcing major funding for the FasTracks project.

Peter Rogoff, head of the Federal Transit Administration, is to join U.S. Senator Michael Bennet, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and Phil Washington, the head of the Regional Transportation District, at Denver Union Station on Friday afternoon.

He may be here to talk about a $300 million federal loan to help cover the cost of redeveloping Denver Union Station, the hub of the FasTracks project. The Denver City Council last week gave its approval to using city money to repay a portion of the loan if tax revenues couldn’t.

This week, three lines that are part of FasTracks received word of federal money, through Obama’s budget proposal for fiscal year 2011, to help pay for construction. Obama’s proposal included:

• $40 million for the West corridor from downtown to Golden, part of an existing $308 million commitment by the federal government to help pay for the line.

• $40 million for the Gold line from downtown to Wheat Ridge, and $40 million for the East line from downtown to Denver International Airport — via a line item listed as “New Full Funding Grant Agreement Funding Recommendations,” which Rogoff said Tuesday, during a conference call with reporters, signaled the government’s intention to help pay for the line.

The Gold and the East line are on a list of “projects that we’re including in the budget, and we’re signaling our intention to sign a full funding grant agreement on these projects before Sept. 30, 2011,” Rogoff said Tuesday during the call.

Still outstanding is the status of the $300 million loan for Denver Union Station.

Paul Griffo, spokesman for the Federal Transit Administration, wouldn’t confirm or deny that Rogoff would discuss the loan in Denver on Friday.

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Brown Shoe Co. saw strong sales in most of its operations during the holiday season, the Clayton-based shoe retailer reported Monday.

Same-stores sales at its Famous Footwear division increased 7 percent in the nine weeks ended January 2.

Comparable sales rose 7.3 percent in the third quarter ended Oct. 31. Same-store sales for its speciality retail division also increased 4.9 percent in that same time period, versus 1.4 percent growth in the third quarter.

Both figures exceeded expectations, the company said. However, Brown didn’t release figures for wholesale operations.

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Last-minute holiday shoppers brought relief to retailers, handing them modest sales gains for the season and prompting several to raise their fourth-quarter profit outlooks.

The improved picture comes because retailers never had to resort to drastic price-cutting after keeping inventories lean. Still, retailers may be facing chilly months as consumer spending is expected to remain muted amid high unemployment and tight credit.

"The holiday season was decent but nothing you can get excited about. And it was saved by a last-minute surge," said Ken Perkins, president of research firm RetailMetrics. "Santa didn’t deliver coal, but he certainly didn’t deliver caviar."

According to Thomson Reuters’ preliminary findings, eight retailers beat expectations, one met, and four missed. Sales figures are based on sales at stores open at least a year and are considered a key indicator of a retailer’s health.

Retailers’ decent performance in December, helped by a last-minute spending spree in the days before Christmas, comes after a disappointing November fast payday loans.

Retailers managed to avoid another Christmas catastrophe because they had a year to plan for a new consumer mindset. They headed into the season with sharply lower inventories and more practical merchandise that resonated with shoppers who stuck to shopping lists and researched deals online before they bought. Shoppers were in malls buying, but they were choosy. They picked up discounted flat-panel TVs, computers and smart phones, but often stayed away from clothing unless it was practical.

Stores were on edge until near Christmas because consumers delayed buying more than last year, either because they were shut in by winter snowstorms or were holding out for better deals. But many stores kept to planned discounts. That’s different from last year, when stores started liquidating merchandise in November because of the escalating financial crisis.

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RALEIGH, N.C. — U.S. consumers and businesses are filing for bankruptcy at a pace that made 2009 the seventh-worst year on record, with more than 1.4 million petitions submitted, an Associated Press tally showed Monday.
 
The AP gathered data from the nation’s 90 bankruptcy districts and found 1.43 million filings, an increase of 32 percent from 2008. There were 116,000 recorded bankruptcies in December, up 22 percent from the same month a year before.
 
While experts believe some of the increase is due to a natural recovery as consumers and attorneys become accustomed to a recent overhaul of bankruptcy laws, the numbers indicate clear correlations to recession-weary regions. Arizona saw the fastest increase, a jump of 77 percent from the year before, followed by Wyoming (60 percent), Nevada (59 percent) and California (58 percent).
 
Emile Harmon, who owns a law firm in Tempe, Ariz., said the firm has doubled its staff to handle the surge in bankruptcy filings. The lawyers have been steadily shifting away from their other areas of business, civil lawsuits and divorce cases.
 
"Bankruptcy is kind of swallowing the whole practice." Harmon said. "There’s little time to do other stuff."
 
There’s also no sign that things are slowing down. Harmon said bankruptcies have been coming in waves, first with those 18 months ago who had adjustable-rate mortages, then with those who lost their jobs due to the housing downturn. Now he’s finding wealthy individuals and business owners who have finally succumbed to lower incomes and shrinking home values.
 
"A lot of the people we see were in a really good financial position two years ago," Harmon said. "People really look at you and say, ‘I can’t believe I’m here business cards."’
 
For three years, filings have been steadily rising back toward levels reached early in the decade before Congress overhauled the nation’s bankruptcy laws. The 2005 alterations made bankruptcy filings more cumbersome, a move that followed fears from lenders that some consumers were abusing the system to wipe away debts.
 
Bankruptcies surged to slightly more than 2 million in 2005 as consumers rushed to file before the new law took effect but then plummeted to 600,000 in 2006. They’ve been climbing ever since and in 2009 became the seventh-highest year on record, behind only the years 1998 and 2001-2005.
 
The 2005 spike had been preceded by a steady climb from 1.5 million in 2001 to 1.6 million in 2005.
 
John Pottow, a bankruptcy professor at the University of Michigan, said the return to the highs of earlier this decade illustrates the failures of the 2005 overhaul bill. He said the measure largely made filings more costly and time-consuming by forcing consumers to undergo a paperwork-heavy test to determine eligibility for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and adding liability for attorneys who provide help.
 
"It never made sense in the first place that you could change the laws and make all these bankruptcies go away," said Pottow, who would like to see the 2005 law changes repealed. "If people are encountering financial distress, you can only scare them away for so long before they come back again."
 
While every state saw a rise in bankruptcies, Alaska (up 12 percent), Nebraska (12 percent) and North Dakota (14 percent) performed best.

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Target Corp. and U.S. retailers may lose almost $9 billion in holiday sales as banks rein in lending to cash-strapped consumers before a new credit-card law takes effect.

Sales in November and December may fall 1.2 percent to $436.7 billion from the same period in 2008, said Britt Beemer, chairman of consumer polling firm America’s Research Group. If lenders weren’t cutting customer spending limits and rejecting more credit-card applicants, sales would gain about 0.8 percent to $445.5 billion, he said in a Dec. 21 interview.

Target Chief Financial Officer Douglas Scovanner says the credit-card legislation is exacerbating a spending slump just as consumers begin to consider more discretionary purchases they would usually buy with credit. Items such as clothing, jewelry and home goods suffered steeper declines during the recession and are among the most profitable sales for retailers.

“It will mute the impact of the rebound that would have otherwise occurred,” Scovanner said. “Diminished availability of credit equals diminished spending.”

Reduced lending may shave at least half a percentage point off sales at stores open at least a year once more of the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act goes into effect in February, Scovanner said in a Nov. 17 interview in Minneapolis, where the chain is based. In November, Target’s comparable-store sales declined 1.5 percent.

‘Tighten Up’

The act bans so-called universal default, the practice of raising interest rates based on a missed payment with another lender. The rules are already causing lenders to “tighten up,” said Brad Jolson, senior director for risk management solutions at Fair Isaac Corp. FICO, as the company is known, is the Minneapolis-based provider of the credit-scoring formula most widely used by lenders.

Available credit to U.S. consumers through cards fell to $3.6 trillion this year from a peak of $4.7 trillion last year, according to a study released in July by TowerGroup, a Needham, Massachusetts-based financial research and advising firm.

“We’re scared to death of what this law is going to do,” said Edward Record, CFO at Stage Stores Inc., the Houston-based operator of 759 stores including the Bealls and Peebles chains. “It’s definitely going to hurt consumer spending.”

Store-Brand Cards

About a third of Stage Stores’ sales comes from store-brand credit cards, and as much as a quarter from other issuers, Record said in a Dec. 17 telephone interview. He said he expects the general-purpose cards will be more affected because Stage Stores was “pretty conservative” with its own cards.

Stage Stores added 8 cents to $12.42 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday and has advanced 51 percent this year. Target fell 54 cents to $48.79 in trading yesterday. The shares have gained 41 percent this year.

Target also offers its own branded credit cards through a portfolio it funds mainly with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Writeoffs for loans deemed uncollectible rose to 14.99 percent in November on an annualized basis, up from 13.49 percent in October and 11 percent a year earlier, Target said in filings.

Proponents of the credit-card law say the rules protect consumers and put more cash at their disposal, benefiting shoppers and retailers. Some issuers may have hurt sales between the law’s passage and enactment by raising rates in anticipation of the coming restrictions, said U.S. Representative Carolyn Maloney, a New York Democrat and a sponsor of the law.

“Much of the damage was and is self-inflicted,” she said in a Dec. 16 telephone interview. “Virtually all of the consumers I’ve talked to like my card reforms.”

Managing Risk

The law will reduce lenders’ flexibility to manage risk, said Peter Garuccio, a spokesman for the American Bankers Association, a Washington trade group representing about 95 percent of U.S. banking assets. That leaves them the options of “not making cards available or doing so at higher prices,” he said in a telephone interview on Dec. 21.

JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America Corp., the two largest issuers, referred questions on the law to the American Bankers Association. Bank of America decided not to raise card interest rates before the law goes into effect except in instances where customers miss at least two payments within 12 months, Betty Riess, a spokeswoman, said yesterday by telephone.

Less credit hurts larger sales disproportionately, according to Beemer, the consumer researcher.

“Credit drives purchases over $50,” he said. He estimates that half those transactions were made with credit cards before access diminished this year.

Applications Rejected

This year, 22 percent of the consumers that Beemer’s Charleston, South Carolina-based firm surveyed said they had credit-card applications rejected, compared with 12 percent last year. More than 37 percent said their credit limits had been reduced in the past year. That means fewer sales of items such as appliances, Beemer said.

The National Retail Federation, which hasn’t taken a stance on the credit-card law as a whole, has said proposed rules under the law threaten stores’ ability to grant so-called instant credit at checkout.

The Federal Reserve’s proposed guidelines would require retailers to ask customers for information on income and other assets, according to the industry group. That may all but eliminate merchants’ ability to issue store cards or raise borrowing limits at the register, Mallory Duncan, general counsel of the Washington-based federation, said in a telephone interview. The current practice is to use credit scores, purchasing history and other credit-bureau information, he said.

“It’s going to have quite a chilling effect on our ability to initiate new accounts,” Duncan said.

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Sweden’s central bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged and said it will stick to plans to leave the rate at a record low until autumn next year to support the economic recovery and reach its inflation target.

The seven-day repo rate was left at 0.25 percent, the Stockholm-based Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, said on its Web site today. The decision was expected by all 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“The recovery in the economy is continuing and inflationary pressure will be low in the coming period,” the Riksbank said in its statement. Today’s decision was necessary “to attain the inflation target of 2 percent and to support the economic recovery. The recovery is from a low level and there will be ample spare capacity over the coming years.”

The largest Nordic economy’s contraction this year will be the severest since World War II, Finance Minister Anders Borg said last month. The export-reliant nation’s slump has been deeper than in neighboring Denmark and Norway after Swedish manufacturers, including the world’s biggest maker of ball bearings SKF AB and truck maker Volvo AB, cut thousands of jobs to adjust to smaller markets. Exports make up half of Sweden’s $480 billion economy.

‘Earlier’

“We still believe that the Riksbank will hike earlier than they forecast since the labor market will stabilize earlier and develop better than they predict,” said Annika Winsth, chief economist at Nordea Bank AB in Stockholm. Nordea forecasts a rate increase to 0.75 percent in April.

The krona was up 0.3 percent against the euro, after earlier having appreciated 0.5 percent, at 10.4310 at 10:19 a.m. in Stockholm. Against the dollar, the krona was up 0.4 percent at 7.1989.

The economy will shrink 4.5 percent this year and grow 2.7 percent next year, the bank forecast today. That compares with an earlier forecast of a 4.6 percent contraction in 2009 and 2.5 percent growth next year.

The central bank also revised its unemployment forecast, saying the rate will peak at 10.1 percent next year, compared with a previous estimate of 10.3 percent, and fall to 10 percent in 2011.

Unemployment

Sales abroad slumped for a 12th consecutive month in October, forcing companies to cut more jobs and threatening to send unemployment higher than the 8.1 percent rate recorded in October, not adjusting for seasonal swings. Ericsson AB, the world’s largest maker of mobile-phone networks, last week said it must continue cutting jobs and costs, affecting 946 people.

“We’re facing rising unemployment,” Borg said on Dec instant payday loans. 4. His ministry predicts the jobless rate will peak at 10.7 percent in 2010 and the economy will shrink 4.9 percent this year.

Industrial production fell for a third month in October, with the decline deepening to 2.7 percent from a 0.5 percent fall in September, Statistics Sweden data show. Industrial output sank an annual 16.1 percent in October and hasn’t grown for 15 months, according to the office.

“The Swedish economy is split in two, where industry is performing very poorly while other parts are doing better,” Winsth said. “The Riksbank focuses a lot on industry and the problems we’re experiencing there.”

Inflation Outlook

The Riksbank today said prices will fall 0.3 percent this year compared with an earlier estimate of a 0.4 percent drop. It cut its inflation expectations to 0.8 percent from 0.9 percent next year and said prices will rise 3 percent in 2011.

The recession has undermined price pressure, with Sweden posting eight months of deflation through November, the longest period of price declines since 1980, when records start. Consumer prices fell an annual 0.7 percent last month, compared with the Riksbank’s 2 percent price growth target.

Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt’s government, which is preparing for an election in September, will spend 32 billion kronor ($4.5 billion) in 2010, or about 1 percent of gross domestic product, on tax cuts and welfare to support demand. His administration came to power in 2006 promising to create jobs by reducing taxes and unemployment benefits. The government trails the opposition by 7.5 percentage points, according to an opinion poll published this month by Statistics Sweden.

Some indicators have pointed to economic improvement. Sweden emerged from recession in the second quarter and expanded 0.2 percent in the three months ended September. Stimulus measures have helped send consumer confidence higher, with the index rising to 11.4 in November from 7.5 in October, marking a fourth consecutive month of positive readings.

“The economic ground should be sufficiently solid for the Riksbank to start hiking the repo rate by the end of summer next year,” Danske Bank said in a report yesterday.

Other central banks are also exercising caution. Oslo-based Norges Bank will probably leave its benchmark rate on hold today after raising the rate a quarter point on Oct. 28 to 1.5 percent as policy makers adjust their stance to lower oil investment and the impact of a strong krone on exports.

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If you want to buy a house, the state of Missouri wants to give you $1,250.

And if you make the place more energy-efficient, it will give you $500 more.

State officials are poised to pass a measure next week that would give a sizable break on property taxes to most people who buy a house in 2010. It is Jefferson City’s latest bid to boost the state’s weak housing market, and the newest item on a growing menu of sweeteners to make buying a house more appealing, sweeteners that some warn could eventually cause a hangover.

The measure was pitched last month by Gov. Jay Nixon and state Treasurer Clint Zweifel as a way to spur housing sales and spur the state’s economy.

"This is so vital to our state’s economic growth," Nixon said. "We want to do everything feasible to encourage people to buy homes."

So next Friday, they will ask the Missouri Housing Development Commission — which Zweifel chairs and to which Nixon appoints most of the members — to set aside $15 million of its reserve funds for one-time property tax reimbursements for Missourians who buy a home in 2010. To qualify, St. Louis-area households must earn $95,060 or less; if they do, they can get up to $1,250 in property taxes reimbursed by the state.

Home buyers who add energy-saving appliances, new windows or other "green" improvements, can qualify for another $500. With a $15 million cap for the program, the state expects to write between 9,000 and 11,000 such checks — roughly one for every 10 homes sold in Missouri this year.

It comes on top of the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers, which many economists say has helped prop up home sales this year. Last month, Congress voted to extend that program through April and expand it to include $6,500 for some repeat buyers. States from California to Delaware have thrown in their own incentives, too, and in January the Missouri housing commission launched a program to give an advance on the $8,000 credit, a program more than 1,200 people have used so far. Illinois launched something similar in July.

Now, Missouri plans to up the ante. If the housing commission approves, the agency will put much of its reserve funds — separate from the state’s cash-strapped general budget — toward the waivers.

"This hopefully is another tool in the toolbox," Zweifel said. "It’s important to put our dollars to work."

Still, given Missouri’s record-high foreclosure rates and a job market that is giving pause to many would-be buyers, some housing advocates wonder if the $15 million might be better spent in other ways no faxing payday loan.

"In terms of the level of need, it strikes me as a little strange," said Chris Krehmeyer, president of Beyond Housing, a St. Louis-based group that provides mortgage counseling and builds affordable housing. "We’re not seeing folks who are buying homes saying ‘I wish someone would pay my taxes next year.’ People are saying, ‘I need help to stay in the home I own.’"

Typically, the state’s housing commission finances affordable housing projects and will issue nearly $100 million in tax credits for those projects in early 2010. But, Zweifel said, the broader housing industry is a big pillar of Missouri’s economy, and supporting it, too, means creating jobs. This provides a fast way to do it.

"The goal was partially to spur home purchases, but also to find a way to quickly put $15 million to work for Missourians," he said. "We wanted to create a program that helps spur economic development and job creation, not something that’s permanent in nature."

The temporary nature of this and the $8,000 federal tax credit has some housing economists warning of trouble when the programs end. Such props must be taken down eventually, and critics point to a plunge in auto sales after the end of the government’s "Cash for Clunkers" program as a warning for what might happen to the housing market.

Then there’s the question of just how much impact it will have. Most people aren’t going to make a decision on whether to move based on $1,250, said Carlos Garriga, an economist who studies housing at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

"It’s just kind of a bonus," he said. "Even at the margins, how many people will move because of this? It’s not that big."

Still, said Mark Stallmann, chief executive of the St. Charles County Association of Realtors, it’s the sort of thing that makes it easier to buy a house. And with the real estate market as weak as it is right now, every little bit — even a $1,250 check from the state — helps.

"Anything that reduces the cost of homeownership, that’s an incentive to help families get in a home, that’s a good thing."

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Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is considering a levy on bankers’ bonuses and this week may reverse a tax cut for Britain’s richest households in efforts to win over voters before next year’s election.

Darling yesterday refused to rule out a tax on excessive bonus payments, although he pledged to hold back from measures that would harm Britain’s banks. He said that lowering the inheritance tax for the richest people is no longer a priority for the pre-budget report on Dec. 9.

“We are not going to be held to ransom by people who believe you can pay extremely large bonuses regardless of what’s going on,” Darling told BBC television yesterday. “You have to be fair. You have to be reasonable. But you have got to keep an eye on what the long-term effects are.”

Darling and Prime Minister Gordon Brown are seeking to persuade voters that David Cameron’s Conservative Party, which is sticking to a similar inheritance tax plan, is siding with the rich at a time when the country is recovering from the worst economic crisis since World War II. That strategy has helped Brown’s Labour Party erode Cameron’s lead in opinion polls.

Bank shares fell in London trading today. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc slid 2 percent to 33.95 pence and Lloyds Banking Group Plc lost 2.3 percent to 54.73 pence. The FTSE 350 Banks Index declined 1.4 percent, the biggest drop in more than a week.

Pound Weakens

The pound weakened against the dollar and the euro. The British currency dropped to $1.6386 as of 10:33 a.m. in London, from $1.6474 at the end of last week. It weakened to 90.47 pence per euro, from 90.18 pence.

Darling said he has not yet seen bonus plans from government-controlled Royal Bank of Scotland and that he has the power to veto any proposals he considers excessive. Darling has also said that he is opposed to punitive measures that would damage a bank’s capital position, making it less likely that he will introduce an industry-wide windfall tax.

“It’s not a black and white world,” Darling said.

The government may impose a one-year windfall tax on British banks that would raise several hundred million pounds, the BBC reported, without attribution. Options may include a “super-tax” on big bonus earners, a larger employers’ national insurance charge or a direct tax on investment banks, the BBC said.

Conservative Plans

George Osborne, the Conservative lawmaker who shadows Darling in Parliament, told the same program that he “wouldn’t rule out” a charge on excessive individual bonuses if his party defeats Labour in the election, which has to take place before June.

An ICM Research poll for the Sunday Telegraph showed that the Conservatives are on course to obtain a majority of between 20 and 25 seats in the 646-seat House of Commons. A ComRes Ltd. survey Dec. 1 showed that the U.K. may be heading for a hung Parliament where no party has an outright majority, with Cameron leading Brown by 10 percentage points, down 3 points from October.

Darling stepped up the attack yesterday, saying Osborne’s plea to voters to endure tougher times isn’t consistent with tax cuts for the rich.

A YouGov Plc poll in yesterday’s Sunday Times showed that more than half of the 2,000 people interviewed viewed the Conservatives as the party of the rich. Cameron said Brown had been “spiteful’ in his efforts to tell voters of his privileged upbringing and elite schooling.

Not ‘First Priority’

“I really can’t believe it would be the first priority of any government, at this time, to give a tax cut to the top 2 percent of estates in this country,” Darling said yesterday.

Darling said in 2007 that he would raise the inheritance tax threshold to 350,000 pounds ($578,000) from 325,000 pounds for single people and to 700,000 pounds from 650,000 pounds for couples, starting April 2010. Cameron’s Conservatives want to abolish the tax for single people with estates below 1 million pounds and for couples with estates below 2 million pounds.

“If the Labour Party wants to say don’t aspire to get on in life, then so be it,” Osborne said. “It’s part of their lurch to the left.”

Darling said this week’s pre-budget statement will spell out some detail on how he plans to implement his pledge to reduce the deficit by as much as half over four years. In the April budget, the Treasury forecast a shortfall of 175 billion pounds in the year through March 2010, or 12.4 percent of gross domestic product — the largest in British postwar history.

Cost Cutting

Darling told the BBC yesterday that he will scrap a 12.4 billion-pound computer program for the National Health Service that is being developed mainly by iSoft Plc. Similar reductions, rather than staff cuts in schools and hospitals, would indicate “the direction of travel” in this week’s report, he said.

“The NHS had quite an expensive IT system and I don’t think we need to go ahead with it now,” he said.

Brown said today the government will reduce spending by more than 12 billion pounds over the next four years through efficiency gains. Ministers had found 3 billion pounds of new savings since April, including 1.3 billion pounds by “streamlining” central government, he said in a speech in London.

Brown said on Dec. 4 in his weekly podcast that a plan to move more government services online would save about 400 million pounds a year.

Today, he promised to reduce the pay bill for senior civil servants by 20 percent over the next three years, and said that more civil service jobs will be moved from London and the southeast of England to parts of the country where living costs are lower. The government will halve spending on consultants and cut its marketing budget by a quarter, Brown said.

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The Bundesbank raised its growth forecasts for Germany, Europe’s largest economy, saying the outlook for the next two years has “brightened perceptibly.”

Gross domestic product will rise 1.6 percent next year and 1.2 percent in 2011 after dropping 4.9 percent this year, the Frankfurt-based Bundesbank said in its bi-annual economic outlook today. In June, it predicted the economy would stagnate in 2010 after contracting 6.2 percent in 2009.

“The outlook for the German economy has brightened perceptibly in recent months,” the Bundesbank said. The recovery is being driven by “extensive” monetary and fiscal stimulus,” it said, adding that exports, business investment and private consumption will gain in importance as those measures wane.

The economic revival in Germany is helping the 16-nation euro region shake off its worst recession since World War II, giving the European Central Bank room to scale back its emergency stimulus measures. The ECB yesterday said it will reduce its long-term lending to banks next year in an exit strategy that some economists say paves the way for eventual interest-rate increases in the second half of 2010.

“Germany fell further in the recession, so it can expect a bit more of a bounce,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Ltd. in London. “The ECB will have to be very cautious about removing stimulus too early no faxing 1 hour payday loans. Pricing pressures are likely to remain subdued.”

Benign Inflation

The Bundesbank said German inflation will remain benign, averaging 0.9 percent next year and 1 percent in 2011 after just 0.3 percent this year. It predicted unemployment will rise to 10.1 percent in 2011 from 8.1 percent today.

It’s a “balancing act” for central banks to withdraw stimulus measures without threatening the economy, Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who also is a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, said yesterday in an interview with ARD television. “There’s no need to send a signal on interest rates at the moment” as inflation is contained, he said.

Germany’s economy emerged from recession in the second quarter and growth accelerated to 0.7 percent in the third. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is spending 85 billion euros ($128 billion) to stimulate activity, while demand for the country’s goods is growing as the global recovery gathers pace.

Exports will gain 4.5 percent next year and 4.3 percent in 2011, according to the Bundesbank. It predicts consumer spending will increase 0.2 percent in 2010 and 1 percent the following year.

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