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Belgian business confidence declined to a record low in December as the global financial crisis pushed Europe’s economy deeper into a recession.

The confidence index for Belgium, whose government is reeling from a crisis surrounding the state-organized breakup of Fortis, plunged to minus 31.3 from minus 23.7 in November, the Brussels-based National Bank of Belgium said today in an e-mailed statement. That is the lowest since the data were first collated in 1980. Economists expected a decline to minus 26, according to the median of 19 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Business and consumer confidence across Europe is tumbling as the financial turmoil saps demand for exports and unemployment rises. In Belgium, where the prime minister offered to resign over allegations his government tried to interfere with a court ruling on the Fortis breakup, the economy is forecast to shrink in 2009 for the first time in 16 years, the central bank said this month.

Confidence in Europe is “at a record low already. How deep, how low can you go?” Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels, said on Bloomberg Television today. “Unfortunately, there is some scope to see a further deterioration.”

European executive and consumer confidence in the economic outlook has dropped to a 15-year low even after interest-rate cuts and government stimulus measures aimed at battling the impact of the financial crisis health insurance. Executive sentiment in Germany, the region’s largest economy, slumped to the lowest level in more than a quarter-century in December, data showed last week.

Slowest Pace

Belgium’s economy grew at the slowest pace in five years in the third quarter and the drop in business confidence indicates the slump will extend into 2009. Gross domestic product will contract 0.2 percent next year after growing 1.4 percent this year, the central bank forecast on Dec. 8, revising a June forecast for 2009 expansion of 1.5 percent.

The Belgian king is working to name a new prime minister by Christmas after Yves Leterme tendered his resignation Dec. 19, with the fate of Fortis, formerly the nation’s largest financial- services firm, hanging in the balance. Leterme yesterday ruled himself out as the leader of a new government.

Leterme’s coalition collapsed after the Justice minister quit because the nation’s highest appeals court didn’t clear him from allegations of interfering with a ruling that blocked the sale of Fortis assets to BNP Paribas SA.

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Oil prices fell over 6 per cent Monday, to below US$51 a barrel, after OPEC decided not to cut production at an informal meeting in Cairo on Saturday and on more evidence the global economic slowdown will hurt demand for crude.

By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for January delivery was down $3.62 to $50.81 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had settled down a penny at $54.43 on Friday.

In London, January Brent crude fell $3.31 to $50.18 on the ICE Futures exchange.

On Saturday, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said that OPEC will "do what needs to be done" to shore up falling oil prices when the group meets Dec. 17 in Algeria, but for now it was "too early" to make another output cut.

Prices continued to slide despite a separate report by Iranian state TV in which OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah El-Badri said that a daily oil production cut of between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels was likely in December.

OPEC had already made an output cut of 1.5 million barrels a day in October, although analysts said the organization may want to observe the impact of that cut before committing to the another one.

El-Badri was quoted Monday on the station's website saying that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is facing a very difficult situation and plans to "restore oil prices to $90 per barrel."

But disheartening news from some of the world's largest economies pushed aside speculation about any future OPEC cuts.

Surveys of activity in the manufacturing sector in the euro zone and Britain were particularly poor on Monday. Both pointed to a sharper-than-expected contraction in output.

In China, an equivalent survey of its manufacturing sector also made for grim reading, generating fears that one of the main engines of global growth over the last few years is slowing sharply same day payday loans.

Sucden Research in London cited data from the United Nations, which now expects the global economy to grow by just 1 per cent in 2009, compared to an earlier forecast expecting growth of 2.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, Saudi King Abdullah told the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Seyassah in an interview published Saturday that oil should be priced at $75 a barrel.

"They need to cut a lot to get the price to $75," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Demand is disappearing underneath them fast."

Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari was quoted as saying Sunday that the market was oversupplied by around 2 million barrels per day and that production should be cut by that amount.

OPEC, which accounts for about 40 per cent of global supply, reduced output quotas in October by 1.5 million barrels a day.

"It will be difficult to get everyone to comply to a drastic cut," Shum said. "The market has assumed there will be a substantial OPEC cut so if they don't, there will be significant downward pressure on prices.''

Investors will be looking this week for signs of how bad the global economic slowdown may be, particularly U.S. retail sales at the start of the holiday shopping season.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 5.16 cents to $1.1580 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 5.66 cents to $1.6705 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery shed 12.8 cents to $6.382 per 1,000 cubic feet.

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WASHINGTON–Google Inc. and Yahoo Inc. have scrapped their Internet advertising partnership, abandoning attempts to overcome the objections of antitrust regulators and customers who believed the alliance would give Google too much power over online commerce.

The retreat announced Wednesday represented another setback for Yahoo, which had been counting on the Google deal to boost its annual revenue by $800 million and placate shareholders still incensed by management's decision to reject a $47.5 billion takeover bid from Microsoft Corp. nearly six months ago.

Without Google's help, Yahoo now may feel more pressure to renew talks with Microsoft and ultimately sell for a price well below the $33 per share that Microsoft offered in May. Yahoo shares traded Wednesday morning at just $13.67, up 2.4 percent on the day.

Surrendering the chance to sell ads on Yahoo's popular Web site won't be a significant financial blow for Google, which already runs the Internet's largest and most prosperous advertising network.

But the capitulation marks a rare comedown for Google, which had been insisting for more than four months that the Internet would be a better place to do business if it were allowed to work with Yahoo.

"We're of course disappointed that this deal won't be moving ahead," David Drummond, Google's chief legal officer, wrote on a company blog. "But we're not going to let the prospect of a lengthy legal battle distract us from our core mission. That would be like trying to drive down the road of innovation with the parking brake on.''

Google's management took a strategic risk by agreeing to the Yahoo partnership in June, knowing the move would increase the government's scrutiny of Google's market power. Even though it is now walking away empty-handed, Google figures to remain in regulators' sights as it tries to expand.

"For the first time, Google has run into real opposition to its marketplace goals," said Jeff Chester, executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy, a consumer advocacy group. "Google is aware that its aggressive moves in the online advertising business are potentially contributing to damaging its brand. The perception of Google has changed.''

The collapse of the Google-Yahoo alliance shapes up as a potential coup for Microsoft.

Although it has publicly said it's no longer interested in buying Yahoo, Microsoft spent a lot of time and money trying to keep Google and Yahoo from coming together.

The world's largest software maker provided evidence that helped persuade regulators the partnership would diminish competition. Microsoft also helped orchestrate the campaign that prompted major advertisers to lodge formal complaints against the proposed partnership.

The Justice Department signaled it was considering a legal challenge to the deal in September when it hired veteran antitrust lawyer Sanford Litvack to review the case.

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Google and Yahoo had proposed restrictions on the deal – capping the amount of search ads Yahoo could outsource to Google – in a late bid to win favor no fax pay day loan. Google's statement Wednesday indicated the idea didn't fly.

"After four months of review, including discussions of various possible changes to the agreement, it's clear that government regulators and some advertisers continue to have concerns about the agreement," Drummond wrote. "Pressing ahead risked not only a protracted legal battle but also damage to relationships with valued partners. That wouldn't have been in the long term interests of Google or our users, so we have decided to end the agreement.''

Now that Google is out of the picture, Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang will have to come up with another way to accelerate his company's revenue growth and boost a stock price that has lost more than half its value since he became chief executive in June 2007.

If nothing else, Yang appears to have a bigger incentive to join forces with another tarnished Internet star, AOL. Yahoo has been discussing a possible acquisition with AOL's corporate parent, Time Warner Inc., for months. Google also owns a 5 per cent stake in AOL.

But many Yahoo shareholders, including new board member Carl Icahn, have indicated they think the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company should try to lure Microsoft back to the negotiating table.

Most industry analysts still believe Microsoft will make another run at Yahoo, particularly now that the company can be bought at a fraction of the May offer. Instead of buying Yahoo in its entirety, Microsoft might just want Yahoo's search engine, which ranks a distant second in usage behind Google's. Microsoft attempted to buy Yahoo's search engine shortly before the Google partnership was reached.

Under the terms of the proposed partnership, Yahoo would have drawn on Google's superior technology for some of the ads shown alongside the search results on its Web site. Yahoo would have pocketed most of the revenue generated from Google's ads.

The concept didn't pan out because Google and Yahoo combined control more than 80 percent of the U.S. search advertising market. Microsoft and the Association of National Advertisers, among others, argued the arrangement would enable Google to gradually increase advertising prices and exert more control over the flow of e-commerce.

Google and Yahoo said the complaints were misguided because search advertising rates are set through an auction-style system. What's more, the partnership was supposed to be non-exclusive, leaving an opening for Microsoft and others to vie to sell ads on Yahoo's website.

But helping out Yahoo began to make less sense for Google as it became apparent how much the proposal was alienating the government and advertisers.

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General Motors’ October U.S. sales plunged 45 percent, and Ford’s and Chrysler’s weren’t far behind, as low consumer confidence and tight credit combined to bring the industry’s sales to an "unsustainably weak level" that is the worst in 25 years.

Automakers sold 838,156 vehicles in October, 32 percent fewer than in the same month last year and the worst performance since January 1991, according to Autodata Corp. and Ward’s AutoInfoBank. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 10.6 million vehicles was the lowest since February 1983.

"It’s really an unsustainably weak level for all manufacturers," said Mike DiGiovanni, GM’s executive director of global market and industry analysis. "This is clearly a severe, severe recession for the U.S. automotive industry and something we really can’t sustain."

The annual sales rate in October 2007 was 16.1 million.

Chrysler’s sales tumbled 35 percent, and Ford’s dropped 30 percent. Toyota’s sales fell 23 percent despite its zero-percent financing offer, and Nissan and Honda posted 33 percent and 25 percent declines, respectively.

Overall, General Motors Corp. sold 168,719 vehicles in October, while Ford Motor Co., including its Volvo brand, sold 132,278 light vehicles and Chrysler LLC’s sales totaled 94,530 units.

If GM’s sales were adjusted for population growth, October would be the worst month of the post-World War II era, DiGiovanni said.

"Clearly, we’re in a very dire situation," he said. Detroit-based GM said its light truck sales tumbled 51 percent compared with the same month last year, while demand for passenger cars fell 34 percent.

Despite the steep drop, GM’s total was enough to keep it ahead of Toyota Motor Corp bad credit cash loans. for the No. 1 U.S. sales spot. Toyota, which rolled out an offer of zero-percent financing during the month, sold 152,101 vehicles. The Japanese company’s light truck sales fell 34 percent, while car sales dropped 15 percent.

Honda Motor Co.’s sales fell to 85,864 vehicles as truck sales fell 29 percent. But sales of cars from its Acura luxury division rose 6 percent.

Nissan Motor Co. sold 56,945 vehicles, and its truck sales dropped 52 percent.

Ford officials said on a conference call with reporters and industry analysts that as bad as October sales were, it’s probably not the bottom.

Emily Kolinski Morris, the Dearborn, Mich.-based company’s senior economist, said that because automobiles are more durable, people can wait without buying a new vehicle until they feel more confident in the economy.

"The answer to when we will start to come out of that trough lies in when the economy comes out of that trough," Kolinski Morris said.

Ford likely will announce car and crossover vehicle production cuts when it announces its third-quarter earnings on Friday, said George Pipas, Ford’s top sales analyst. Truck production cuts earlier in the year have kept inventories low, but car and crossover inventories need to be brought into line, he said.

The Associated Press reports unadjusted auto sales figures, calculating the percentage change in the total vehicles sold in one month compared with the same month a year earlier. Some automakers report percentages adjusted for sales days. There were 23 sales days last month, two less than in October 2007.

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China’s listed companies, after delivering robust earnings growth every quarter for two years, are seeing profits start to shrink as the global financial crisis hits more severely than many had expected.

Slumping demand and falling prices have hit Chinese industries from steel to automobiles to airlines, and the highly profitable financial sector, while largely insulated from the worst of the global credit crisis, will see its bottom line eroded by a slowing economy and a deflating property market.

“The impact of the global financial crisis on China’s real economy and corporate operations has just begun to make itself clear,” said Zheng Weigang, head of research at Shanghai Securities.

“Many industries, such as steel and chemicals, have seen their sales prices nearing their cost points,” he said.

“November and December will see several major sectors fall into losses, boding ill for corporate earnings growth in the fourth quarter and next year.”

In the third-quarter earnings reporting season that ended on Friday, the 1,600-plus firms listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges posted a 20 percent drop in net profit from the second quarter, according to calculations by state media. Year-on-year comparisons for the quarter were not available.

For the first nine months of the year, net profit was up 7.1 percent year-on-year at 782 billion yuan ($114 billion), slowing sharply from 16 percent growth in the first half, the calculations showed.

Worse news lies ahead.

SHRINKING MARGINS

Analysts estimate that more than half of China’s listed firms have already seen their profit margins drop in the third quarter from the same period of last year creditreports.

That means the only way they could sustain earnings growth is by selling more products — a tough task as global recession crimps exports and China’s slowing economic growth dampens domestic demand.

Among 10 analysts, economists and fund managers polled by Reuters this week, all but one forecast flat to weaker earnings for listed firms in the current quarter compared with a year earlier, while for next year they projected declines ranging from 2 to 10 percent.

“Earnings growth is certain to be negative in 2009, but the extent of the decline should still be in single digits, with the first half expected to be worse than the second half,” said Wu Haijun, Shanghai principal at Power Pacific Corp of Canada, a foreign investor in Chinese stocks.

Earnings at financial firms, the primary engine of China’s profit growth accounting for some 40 percent of the total at all listed companies, slowed significantly after powering total increases of 43 percent in 2007 and 67 percent in 2006.

The country’s biggest insurer, China Life (601628.SS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (2628.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), posted a drop of more than 70 percent in third-quarter net profit, as its investment income sank with the stock market. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC has dropped more than 70 percent over the past year. 

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ALBANY, N.Y. — Financially troubled American International Group, now supported by a federal bailout, has agreed to freeze millions of dollars in compensation and bonuses for former executives.

In a letter Wednesday to AIG’s new chairman, Edward Liddy, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo wrote that after his office’s review of company documents, the insurance and finance giant agreed to stop payments under former chief executive Martin Sullivan’s $19 million pay package.

AIG also confirmed that no payments will be made from the $600 million compensation and bonus pools of its Financial Products subsidiary, including $69 million the former head of the subsidiary, Joseph Casano, could have been paid and about $93 million that five other top executives might have been eligible to receive.

"The Financial Products subsidiary was largely responsible for AIG’s collapse, and Casano has been terminated," Cuomo wrote. Taxpayers’ financial interests should take priority over those managers, he said.

Company spokesman Joe Norton said Cuomo’s letter was consistent with AIG’s actions and discussions with the attorney general internet pay day loan. After a meeting last week, Liddy and Cuomo issued a joint statement that payments to outgoing chief financial officer Steven Bensinger were stopped and the company would help Cuomo recover any illegal expenditures.

Cuomo said Wednesday that the next step for his office will be investigating how to recoup executive bonuses paid previously, saying a fraud law could apply depending on timing, circumstances and contracts. Handling AIG’s case should be regarded as a template for other companies that require government help, he said.

"Taxpayers are, in many ways, now like shareholders of your company, and the new AIG has a responsibility to them in the first instance," Cuomo wrote Liddy, noting the $120 billion bailout will leave the U.S. Treasury with AIG stock.

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LOS ANGELES – A person close to the deal says Steven Spielberg’s DreamWorks studio has signed on with Universal Pictures to distribute its films.

Universal will distribute up to six DreamWorks movies a year domestically and overseas, except for India, said the person, who was not authorized to speak on the record and requested anonymity.

The deal has been anticipated as DreamWorks prepares to break off from Paramount, which has owned the studio since 2006 cash till payday advance.

There has been ongoing friction over the costs of keeping Spielberg and his outfit there.

DreamWorks has lined up $1.5 billion through Reliance Entertainment of India to finance its future film slate.

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Prime Minister Gordon Brown will say bold and far-reaching action is needed to tackle the global financial crisis when Britain unveils a multi-billion pound bank rescue package Wednesday.

The package, due to be announced at about 7 a.m. (0600 GMT), will involve what a government source has described as a large-scale injection of capital into major retail banks, some of which have lost half their value this week.

“Extraordinary times call for bold and far-reaching solutions,” Brown will say at a news conference with finance minister Alistair Darling scheduled for 9 a.m. (2:00 a.m. EDT), according to extracts released by his press office.

“This is not a time for conventional thinking or outdated dogma but for fresh and innovative intervention that gets to the heart of the problem.

“These decisions on stability and restructuring are the necessary building blocks to allow banks to return to their basic function of providing cash and investment for families and businesses (payday loans).”

Financial analysts expect the package to involve the government providing up to 50 billion pounds to the banks in exchange for equity stakes in the form of preference shares, which could see taxpayers benefit if the banks recover.

The package follows a meeting Tuesday involving Brown, Darling, Bank of England governor Mervyn King and the head of the Financial Services Authority. There was pressure from bank chief executives to act.

British media have suggested the package could also involve a stand-by facility that would effectively allow banks to tap as much money as they need, but the government source played this down. 

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The International Energy Agency warned last week that 50 per cent of global electricity supply will need to come from renewable energy sources by 2050 if we hope to "minimize significant and irreversible climate change impacts."

"Governments need to take urgent action," said Nobuo Tanak, executive director of the agency. "Governments need to do more. Setting a carbon price is not enough."

What’s interesting about this particular warning is that comes from an agency that, in the past, has been accused of paying only lip service to renewables as part of its broader energy mandate, which has traditionally been dominated by fossil fuels.

Indeed, the organization was founded during the early 1970s directly in response to the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

Here in Canada, Tanak’s "do more" message likely fell on deaf ears. The federal Conservative government is more focused on ways to clean up the image of the western oil sands so that development there can continue unabated. Provinces such as Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia have taken leadership, but at a federal level there’s no green vision for Canada — just a laundry list of half-measures aimed at creating a perception of action.

Given the Conservative lead in the polls, Canadians must be buying it. The only other explanation is that four in 10 voters don’t care about the environment, climate change or how we leave the world for future generations. Not enough, anyway, to sway them toward the Liberals, NDP or Green Party.

It gets worse.

The collapse of Wall Street has severely tightened lending markets. There’s a global credit crunch, and those looking to spend big bucks on wind, hydroelectric, solar and biomass projects will find it much more difficult — and expensive — to obtain debt financing.

The bottom line: the knee-jerk reaction to the financial crisis will lead to less, or slower action on the climate crisis.

"These are capital-intensive projects," says Tom Rand, director of Toronto-based VCi Green Funds Inc., a private-equity fund that invests in technologies that reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. "And we need renewable-energy production to step up tomorrow."

Rand has spent the past year promoting the creation of a government "green bond" that, during the current credit crunch, makes more sense than ever.

The idea is that Canadians could purchase tax-free green bonds in the same way they can purchase Canada Savings Bonds, earning about 4 per cent a year (fast cash). But the money, potentially billions of dollars, raised from the bond issue would be devoted to infrastructure projects that promote deployment of renewable energy.

"Renewables have to get built, that’s a priority, and our plan steps in to provide that liquidity, that cheap debt capital," explains Rand, adding that the bond money could also be used to backstop low-interest bank loans so homeowners have an affordable way to pay for energy retrofits.

"Canadians get a safe investment vehicle, and companies get guaranteed access to low-cost capital over a long period of time. They don’t have to worry about that credit crunch biting them in the ass. It’s the best of both worlds."

Jobs get created. Clean energy capacity gets built. And Canadians who purchased the bonds get a safe return on their investment and a chance to boost — for themselves, and for their children — development of a green economy.

Liberal leader Stéphane Dion is a strong advocate of the green bond concept.

Last month, Dion said if elected he would create a federal infrastructure bank that would use money raised from green bonds to provide low-cost financing for major clean-energy projects.

A week earlier, NDP leader Jack Layton announced similar plans for a climate-change bond.

The Conservatives, initially receptive to the idea, ended up backing away.

"Mainly because I don’t think they want to engage Canadians on climate-change issues," Rand says. "Because once Canadians are engaged and they have something at stake, their psychology changes and suddenly people want real action."

Europe introduced green bonds last year and within three months about $1.5 billion was raised.

The public appetite is enormous for this kind of investment vehicle, says Rand, who plans to shift gears if the Conservatives get re-elected and start pitching the idea to the provinces.

Why wait? Ontario should be looking into the green bond approach today. If Energy and Infrastructure Minister George Smitherman is serious about increasing the province’s targets for renewables, then reaching those targets in an environment of tight credit will require some creative financing.

A green bond could fit that bill.

Tyler Hamilton’s Clean Break appears Mondays. Email thamilton@thestar.ca

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The Canadian dollar suffered its biggest weekly decline in at least 38 years against its U.S. counterpart this week as the passage by Congress of the $700 billion (U.S.) rescue package failed to persuade investors that the worst of the financial crisis was over.

Canadian bond prices rose and yields fell as fears of a global recession had many in the market betting that central banks would soon be cutting interest rates to spur growth.

The loonie closed at $1.0815 to the U.S. dollar, or 92.46, (U.S.) down from $1.0799 to the greenback, or 92.60 at Thursday’s close.

Canada’s currency ended the week down 4.5 per cent against the U.S. dollar, its biggest one-week drop since at least 1970. Early in the session it touched a 13-month low, but regained some ground after the passage of the rescue package for the besieged U.S. financial sector.

As financial institutions in the United States and Europe have collapsed in response to bursting real estate bubbles and murky assets, lenders have responded by hoarding cash and U.S. dollars have become scarce, driving up their value.

Once the U.S. economic rescue package was passed, traders focused their attention back on world economies.

"We’re getting economic numbers in the U.S. which are dismal, and that, I think, removes any debate about whether there will be a recession in the U.S … and there’s a significant risk of a global recession," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

U.S. payrolls plunged in September at the steepest rate in five years as employers cut 159,000 non-farm jobs from their payrolls, the U.S. Labor Department said yesterday. Analysts had expected a loss of 100,000 jobs.

Weakening commodity prices have also weighed heavily on Canada’s dollar, with around half of Canadian exports made up of natural resources (instant payday loans).

"Commodity price measures are not just back to levels of a year ago, but all the way back to levels prevailing in late 2005, and the sell-off is taking no prisoners," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "

"A darkening global growth outlook and a rejuvenated U.S. dollar – which had its best week in years – have both pounded on resource prices."

Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank of Canada, said the market expects central banks, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada included, will start cutting rates in the near term to try to spur growth. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, fell to reflect those expectations of lower rates.

Early in the session, the Bank of Canada moved to increase confidence in the Canadian markets by upping the amount it plans to inject into markets through Purchase and Resale Agreements to $20 billion from a previously announced $8 billion to help improve liquidity in the financial system.

The two-year bond rose 20 cents to $100.52 (Canadian) to yield 2.500 per cent. The 10-year bond gained 50 cents to $105.40 to yield 3.582 per cent.

The yield spread between the two-year and the 10-year bond rose to 115 basis points from 105 basis points. The 30-year bond added 85 cents to $115.15 for a yield of 4.095 per cent. In the United States, the 30-year Treasury yielded 4.094 per cent

Reuters News Agency

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