Finance topics

Greece’s prime minister says his debt-crippled country faces a disorderly default in March if it fails to secure a continued flow of international rescue loans.

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos says decisions made in the next few weeks, ahead of a new visit by international debt inspectors, will determine whether Greece will remain in the 17-nation eurozone or revert to its pre-2002 currency, the drachma.

According to a transcript from his office, Papademos told union leaders and employer representatives Wednesday that Greece’s international creditors have called for a re-examination of labor costs to boost lagging competitiveness and fight high unemployment.

He warned that, unless significant reforms are made, Greece will not receive its next installment of rescue funds.

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The Obama administration will ask Congress to raise the nation’s borrowing limit by $1.2 trillion this week, marking the third and final increase from a deal negotiated over summer.

Treasury officials said Tuesday that the increase is necessary because the government will be within $100 billion of its current limit by Friday.

The debt limit is the amount the government can borrow to finance its operations. The latest increase will boost that limit to $16.4 trillion. Officials say that should be enough to allow the government to keep borrowing until the end of 2012 _ just after the presidential election.

Congress can reject the request, although Obama can veto their objection. If Congress doesn’t act by Jan. 14, the increase will take place automatically.

The national debt has soared because the government has run record deficits over the past decade. The borrowed money has helped pay for two wars, stimulate the nation’s economy after the worst recession since the Great Depression and finance broad tax cuts initiated during the Bush administration.

The enormity of the debt has also stoked intense partisan debate in Congress over spending and taxes. Polls show growing voter anger with the inability of both parties to reach solutions to the country’s budget problems fast cash now.

In August, Congress and the administration agreed to raise the borrowing limit by $2.1 trillion in three steps. The deal was reached hours before a potential default on the nation’s debt and only after the parties also agreed to cut more than $2 trillion from the deficit over the next 10 years.

Still, the parties are at odds over how to reduce the deficit. In November, a bipartisan panel failed to meet a deadline to agree on $1.2 trillion of the cuts. That means automatic cuts of that amount will begin in January 2013 _ a condition included in last summer’s deal.

Republicans want to modify the timetable for the automatic cuts, largely because it includes steep cuts to the nation’s defense budget.

Congress agreed to raise the debt limit by $400 billion in August and by another $500 billion in September.

House Republicans voted against the second increase. But they failed to block it because the Senate approved it. The increases are scheduled to take effect unless both chambers vote against them.

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The lone holdout juror who prevented a Utah company from getting as much as $1.2 billion from one-time rival Microsoft Corp. for alleged antitrust violations says he’s at peace with his decision.

Corbyn Alvey, a 21-year-old security guard from Magna, told KSL-TV ( http://bit.ly/ubPwcB) that he didn’t think there was enough evidence presented during the two-month trial in U.S. District Court in Salt Lake City to support the claims of Provo-based Novell Inc.

Novell sued Microsoft in 2004, claiming the software giant duped it into developing the once-popular WordPerfect writing program for Windows 95 only to pull the plug so Microsoft could gain market share with its own product. Novell says it was later forced to sell WordPerfect for a $1.2 billion loss.

“I walk away feeling honestly myself, and I can’t speak for the other jurors, that I made the right decision even if it resulted in a hung jury,” Alvey said Saturday. “There were so many inferences that needed to be drawn that I felt that it was unfair to Microsoft to go out on a limb and say, `yes.’”

Alvey described the three days of jury deliberations as stressful. The 11 other jurors sided with Novell.

“Obviously, I wanted to convince them to agree with me and they wanted to convince me to agree with them,” he told KSL.

Bill Gates testified last month that he had no idea his decision to drop a tool for outside developers would sidetrack Novell payday loan lenders. Gates said he was acting to protect Windows 95 and future versions from crashing.

Novell argued that Gates ordered Microsoft engineers to reject WordPerfect as a Windows 95 word processing application because he feared it was too good.

Alvey said the jury agreed on the technical aspects of the case but disagreed on what Novell could have accomplished “but for” Gates’ decision.

“There was a lot of speculation in this `but for’ world,” he said.

As for Gates’ testimony, Alvey said, “The man was a little sarcastic at times. If anything, it provided a little break from the monotonous questions and answers … I think from his testimony, what I heard, and what I saw in the emails, Bill Gates was a man who took every threat extremely seriously.”

Jury foreman Carl Banks said he tried hard to get a verdict.

“It was a tough case. It was long and it was hard and it was grueling,” he said. “We gave it our best shot.”

Novell attorneys have said they would seek to retry the case with a new jury. Microsoft said it would file a motion asking the judge to dismiss Novell’s complaint for good and avoid a second trial.

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A Yemeni military official says al-Qaida-linked militants have attacked a military barracks in an embattled southern town, leaving two soldiers and 11 militants dead.

The official said Saturday that another 36 soldiers were injured in the base in Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan province.

He says that the fighting began Friday night and continued into the morning. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media payday loans.

Militants and the army have fought for control of Zinjibar since May. A 10-month-old uprising against authoritarian President Ali Abdullah Saleh has caused a breakdown of authority throughout the country.

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A steady decline in the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits is the latest signal that the economy has strengthened and businesses may be poised to step up hiring.

Applications fell last week fell to a seasonally adjusted 381,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s the lowest level since late February.

And a four-week average for applications, which smooths week-to-week fluctuations, fell for the ninth time in 11 weeks to an eight-month low.

The downward trend in unemployment benefit applications bolsters the view that the economy has improved from its spring slump, when many feared another recession was likely. Consumer confidence is up, retailers reported a strong start to the holiday shopping season and the unemployment rate fell last month to its lowest point in two and a half years.

“There have been numerous indications that the labor market is healing and today’s jobless claims report only reinforces that view,” Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG, a trading firm.

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said the drop in unemployment benefit claims reflects relief among businesses that consumer demand didn’t plunge this fall as some had feared.

“We expect claims to head slowly downwards for the foreseeable future, and in due course payroll growth will accelerate,” Shepherdson said in a note to clients.

Applications that drop below 375,000 _ consistently _ tend to correlate with a steady decline in the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent in November, the government said last week, down from 9 percent the previous month. Still, the rate dropped last month in part because more people gave up looking for work. Once the unemployed stop looking for jobs and drop out of the work force, they are no longer counted as unemployed.

Employers added a net total of 120,000 jobs last month. The economy has generated 100,000 or more jobs five months in a row _ the first time that has happened since April 2006 no faxing payday loans.

Many economists expect growth to accelerate in the final three months of the year, to about a 3 percent annual rate. That would be an improvement from 2 percent growth in the July-September period.

But the U.S. economy is vulnerable to shocks from overseas. European leaders are struggling to contain a two-year old debt crisis and the 17 nations that use the euro may already be in recession, economists say.

That could slow U.S. exports and cut into overseas profits earned by U.S. multinationals. Even worse, the crisis could force European banks to cut back on lending and U.S. banks to follow suit, leading to a credit crunch. Most economists are penciling in slower U.S. growth next year, partly because of Europe’s slowdown.

Fewer people are receiving unemployment benefits, and the number of people on extended benefits also fell. Some of that decline is because those out of work found jobs. But economists think most have likely used up all their benefits.

The number of people receiving benefits fell by 174,000 to 3.58 million. But that doesn’t include several million people receiving aid under extended programs put in place during the recession. All told, 6.6 million people received unemployment aid in the week ending Nov. 19, the latest data available. That’s about 400,000 fewer than the previous week.

Congress is debating whether to continue the extended benefit program, which expires at the end of this year. The program provides up to 99 weeks of benefits in states with high unemployment rates. If the program isn’t continued, the Labor Department estimates that about 1.8 million people could lose benefits by early February.

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Ashok Kokane sits amid his strawberries at Mumbai’s Crawford Market, a handwritten ledger across his knees and a fan of dirty 10 rupee notes at his hand. The lazy, dust-encrusted ceiling fans above are far past cleaning.

There is a sense of timelessness here, in the lurking cats, the shiny shrine to the fearsome Hindu goddess Durga and the cry “Porter? Porter?” sent up by skinny boys with frayed baskets on their heads. It is a tableau many fear will disappear after the government’s decision last week to give foreign big box retailers like Wal-Mart greater access to India’s huge market.

“When big man comes, small man goes,” Kokane said.

The arrival of modern retailing would hasten a cultural transformation in the way Indians shop and work. The debate now raging _ which has shut down Parliament _ hinges on competing visions of what foreign retailers will mean to agriculture and retail, India’s two largest sources of jobs.

The government argues organized retail will make food cheaper, liberate millions from medieval working conditions and put more money into the hands of desperate farmers. Others say it will deepen the inequities of Indian society and wipe out a merchant class whose values and skills have been passed from father to son for generations.

The existing retail landscape is an intricate tangle of shops and bazaars, forged by ideas that date back to India’s earliest religious texts. But, even without Wal-Mart, small, family run shops are already under threat. With the fraying of caste ties, which often determine a family’s profession, and the growing dreams of India’s youth for better paid, more prestigious jobs, retailers are finding it hard to keep the next generation in the family business.

“You have different sets of people who, because of the caste system, have been involved in the same business for many generations,” said Arvind Singhal, founder of Technopak Advisors, a New Delhi based consulting company. These days, he said, “A shopkeeper’s son may not be a shopkeeper.”

Today, organized retail accounts for just 5.5 percent of India’s $470 billion retail market, according to Technopak. Food accounts for about 70 percent of the retail market, which Technopak expects will hit $675 billion by 2016.

Existing domestic supermarkets, like Reliance’s Fresh, Godrej’s Nature’s Basket and Tata’s Westside, have struggled to succeed.

Some sell, at exorbitant prices, rotten dairy goods, pasta infested with bugs and icy $12 pints of Haagen Dazs, repeatedly thawed and refrozen.

Stocking irregularities mean those last cans of Italian plum tomatoes might not be replaced for a month. Shoppers sometimes put back items because the clerk can’t figure out how to get his computer to register the bar code.

“The traditional retailer in India can offer better value than some of the large, organized players,” Singhal said.

The best local shops are marvels of service and quality, bundled with a nice human touch. If you’re short money, you can pay next time. If you want a fistful of flat-leafed parsley or a special pan, they can get it in a day or two. Every organized urban household has a raft of phone numbers for home delivery of cat food, toilet paper, chickens and pretty much anything else.

Yet there are severe drawbacks to the system cash advance today.

India’s market and roadside stalls employ, at backbreaking rates, armies of slim men pedaling rusted bicycles stacked improbably high with eggs for delivery. They run up dark staircases offering fresh rolls wrapped in newspaper and carry cases of bottled water on their heads two and three at a time.

“No one benefits from this kind of employment,” Singhal said. “People are hardly getting money for those jobs.” Far better _ and cheaper for the retailer, he argues _ to hire one well-trained, decently paid person than five low paid workers and spur a virtuous cycle of rising productivity and increased consumption.

Many argue that retailing in India is not yet a zero-sum game: Demand is growing fast enough that big and small players can thrive side by side. The Ministry of Commerce noted that in China, more than 600 hypermarkets opened between 1996 and 2001 but the number of small stores grew too: from 1.9 million to over 2.5 million.

The ministry predicts modernization will create some 10 million new jobs in areas like food processing and transport, as well as in the new retail outlets. They say the more open policy will drive down skyrocketing food prices and help millions of farmers get more money for their crops by eliminating waste and middlemen.

Others say the changes will hurt small farmers at the backbone of India’s rural economy, pushing more of them off the land with few tools to forge a better life elsewhere.

P. Sainath, who has been writing about rural India for 18 years, believes big retail won’t heal the inequities of rural India which have driven over 250,000 farmers to kill themselves since 1995. If anything, he said, it will make them worse.

“One to 2 percent of farmers _ some possibly members of Parliament _ will make a killing. They are the giant farmers,” he said.

Big companies tend to build on existing chains of exploitation, using wholesale agents who extract low prices from unorganized, indebted farmers, whose pricing power will erode further with multinationals, he said. Many of the demonized middlemen, he added, are actually poor women, unlikely to survive the arrival of foreign retail.

“You have no idea of the chaos you are unleashing,” he said.

Reza Meghani, who runs Metro Dry Fruits _ a small stall that has been selling some of the Mumbai’s best dried fruit and nuts for 22 years _ remains confident.

Mumbai’s existing supermarkets haven’t hurt him: They have higher overhead, compromise on quality and charge too much, he said. They can’t compete with the tenderness with which he discusses the eight varieties of almonds he imports from America and Iran.

“We can compete. We will have to compromise on our margins,” said Meghani, 56, who is grooming his son to take over.

Neha Sheikh, 23, says her family has been shopping at his stall for a decade. “The salesperson is really good,” she said. “He’s going to help you out in every little thing.” She doesn’t buy nuts from supermarkets because they’re too expensive.

But if they were cheaper? “Yeah,” she said. “Why not?”

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President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s agreement to step down failed to halt anti-government demonstrations or prevent violence Thursday as regime supporters killed five protesters demanding that the ousted leader be put on trial for crimes ranging from corruption to bloodshed during the current uprising.

Saleh signed the U.S.-backed power-transfer deal, brokered by neighboring countries, Wednesday in the Saudi capital Riyadh in exchange for immunity from prosecution. It sets in motion a number of changes designed to stop the uprising that has battered Yemen’s economy and caused a nationwide security lapse that al-Qaida linked militants have exploited to step up operations.

Saleh passed his presidential duties to his vice president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, effectively ending his 33-year rule. If the deal holds, he’ll be the fourth leader to lose power in the wave of Arab Spring uprisings this year, following longtime dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

In the coming days, the opposition is supposed to name a prime minister, who will be sworn in by Hadi. The prime minister will then form a national unity government, evenly divided between the opposition and the ruling party. Hadi also is to announce a date for presidential elections, to be held within 90 days.

Observers note that the deal does not include a number of Yemen’s biggest power brokers, including Saleh’s relatives who head elite security forces, powerful tribal chiefs and military commanders who have joined the protesters.

Many of the protesters, who have camped out in public square for months to call for sweeping democratic reforms, rejected the deal immediately, saying the opposition parties that agreed to it were compromised by their long association with Saleh.

Thousands took to the streets again Thursday in the capital Sanaa, the central city of Taiz and elsewhere, protesting the deal and calling for Saleh to be tried for charges of corruption and for the killing of protesters during the uprising.

They chanted “No immunity for the killer” and vowed to continue their protests.

Security forces and government supporters opened fire on Sanaa’s main protest camp Thursday, killing five protesters with live ammunition, said Gameela Abdullah, a medic at the local field hospital.

A video posted online by activists showed men in long robes and Arab head scarves firing assault rifles at protesters, who scramble for cover. Some throw rocks and carrying large pictures of Saleh payday advance low fees.

“We’ll keep fighting until Saleh is tried for all the crimes he has committed against the people in his capacity as the head of the armed forces,” said activist Bushra al-Maqtari in Taiz, which has seen some of the most violent crackdowns on anti-regime protesters. Hundreds of demonstrators have been killed nationwide since January.

Abdullah Obal, a leader in the coalition that signed the deal, said the opposition intended to meet with protest leaders to address their demands.

“The agreement does not cancel the youth’s demands or go against them,” he said. “It is their right to protest.”

Some doubt that the deal marks the end of political life for Saleh, who has proved to be a wily politician and suggested in remarks after the signing ceremony that he could play a future political role in the country, along with his ruling party. He had agreed to sign the deal three times before, only to back away at the last minute.

Saleh had stubbornly clung to power despite nearly 10 months of huge street protests in which hundreds of people were killed by his security forces. At one point, Saleh’s palace mosque was bombed and he was treated in Saudi Arabia for severe burns.

“The signature is not what is important,” Saleh said after signing the agreement. “What is important is good intentions and dedication to serious, loyal work at true participation to rebuild what has been destroyed by the crisis during the last 10 months.”

International leaders who had long pushed for the deal applauded Saleh’s signature, many hoping it would help end a security breakdown that has allowed Yemen’s active al-Qaida branch to step up operations in the country’s weakly governed provinces.

President Barack Obama welcomed the decision, saying the U.S. would stand by the Yemeni people “as they embark on this historic transition.”

King Abdullah also praised Saleh, telling Yemenis the plan would “open a new page in your history” and lead to greater freedom and prosperity.

Italy’s foreign minister, Giulio Terzi, lauded the agreement and called for an end to violence.

“Now it is necessary that the accord is fully implemented and that all violence cease,” he said.

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Just as the U.S. economy is making progress despite Europe’s turmoil, here come two new threats.

Deep spending cuts are set to kick in if a congressional panel can’t agree by Thanksgiving on how to shrink the budget deficit. And Congress may let emergency unemployment aid and a Social Security tax cut expire at year’s end. Either outcome could slow growth and spook markets.

Analysts are concerned. Yet most aren’t panicking.

Many say the economy and markets can withstand the blows. That’s because Congress or the Federal Reserve could take other steps next year to blunt the automatic cuts and lift the economy. And investors expect so little from the congressional panel that they’re unlikely to overreact if no deal is reached.

“There’s no doomsday scenario in reducing government spending,” said David Kelly of JP Morgan Funds.

The 12-member bipartisan panel, or supercommittee, was created in August to defuse a political standoff over raising the federal borrowing limit. It’s supposed to find at least $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts by Nov. 23. If it fails, federal spending would automatically be cut by that amount over nine years, starting in 2013.

The law triggers cuts in programs prized by both parties: social services such as Medicare for Democrats, defense spending for Republicans.

The panel appears to be deadlocked.

Economists say a stalemate makes it harder for Congress to extend the Social Security tax cut and unemployment benefits. On the other hand, if the supercommittee does forge a deal, it might include an extension of those benefits. Or it could at least clear the way for an extension later.

The Social Security tax cut gave most Americans an extra $1,000 to $2,000 this year. Unemployment benefits provide about $300 a week. Most of that money quickly and directly boosts consumer spending, which drives the economy.

By contrast, an expiration of those benefits could cut growth by about three-quarters of a percentage point, economists say. Throw in other cuts, like those passed in the August debt deal, and all told, federal budget policies could subtract 1.7 percentage points from growth in 2012, according to JPMorgan Chase and Moody’s Analytics.

Given the tepid economy, such a hit could be damaging.

“It would be very difficult for an economy that’s doing well to digest, let alone one that’s barely growing at potential,” said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s. “That could unwind a lot of the improvement we’ve seen so far.”

The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the July-September quarter. Some analysts fear it could fall below 2 percent next year, especially if the emergency unemployment benefits and Social Security tax cuts aren’t renewed.

The U.S. economy faces other threats, too _ from persistently high unemployment to Europe’s spreading debt crisis, which could hasten a recession.

If the automatic spending cuts take effect, the defense budget could be cut by nearly $500 billion over nine years. Some contractors are nervous.

Wes Bush, CEO of Northrop Grumman, has told analysts that the company is bracing for spending cuts.

“It’s certainly going to be a more challenging environment” next year, he said.

Another wild card: Some investors fear that the supercommittee’s failure would spark fresh downgrades of U.S. debt. Standard & Poor’s downgraded the government’s long-term debt in August. That contributed to a stock market plunge. It’s possible that a deadlocked supercommittee would lead the two other major rating agencies _ Fitch and Moody’s _ to follow suit.

Yet S&P’s downgrade did little to tarnish U.S. debt. Treasury prices rose, and yields fell. Bond investors still saw Treasurys as a super-safe investment. Federal borrowing costs actually declined.

“S&P showed that when a rating agency downgrades the best-known security in the world, it has little impact,” Kelly said. The market for U.S. Treasurys is so broad, accessible and transparent that ratings downgrades don’t pose much threat, he noted.

Kelly said Wall Street is unlikely to panic given that expectations for the supercommittee “are so low as to be subterranean.”

Even so, some traders appear to be positioning for a shock. So-called “defensive” sectors of the stock market, like healthcare companies and utilities, which tend to retain their value in a weak economy, have been outpacing the S&P 500 index as a whole.

In the past month, the economy has shown surprising strength. Reports this week showed that manufacturers are producing more goods and consumers are spending more. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits for the first time is at a seven-month low.

Still, more than once since the recession officially ended more than two years ago, the economy has displayed vigor only to stumble again. High gas and food prices and Japan’s earthquake sharply slowed growth in the first half of the year. Congress’ debt-ceiling fight sent consumer confidence to recession levels.

Sweet thinks there’s a good chance Congress will end up extending the Social Security tax cut. Partly on that assumption, Moody’s foresees 2.6 percent growth next year. For this year, analysts generally estimate less than 2 percent growth.

Lawmakers could make other policy changes next year to energize the economy. The tax cuts enacted during the Bush administration, and extended in 2010, are set to expire after 2012. Republicans will push to renew them.

Some of the automatic cuts set to kick in in 2013 could be delayed or altered. That’s particularly true if the White House or either chamber of Congress changes sides in 2012.

And some economists say the automatic spending cuts could actually boost confidence a bit: They would reassure the world that the U.S. government can make progress in shrinking its deficit.

Even so, the supercommittee seems likely to fall short of its goal to help reduce the federal debt load.

And there’s more pressure to come.

Priya Misra, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, estimates that Congress will need to find $2 trillion more in cuts by August 2013 to prevent another credit downgrade.

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With its stock down about 65 per cent this year, Research in Motion, the maker of the BlackBerry, has no shortage of unhappy shareholders.

But few of its investors have sought and received as much attention over the past few months as Victor P. Alboini, the chairman and chief executive of Jaguar Financial.

In several interviews since June, Alboini has called for the replacement of RIM

Male CEOs with faces that are wider relative to facial height achieve better financial performance for their firms, according to research from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Elaine M. Wong, assistant professor in the school’s department of communication, analyzed the features of 55 U.S. CEOs and found that in general, the wider the face, the higher the company’s return on assets.

She did not find the same correlation with women. She hypothesizes that wider faces – which her research also links to greater aggression – may have been an evolutionary necessity for men, but not women.

The successful group of current and former CEOs included Herb Kelleher of Southwest Airlines, who turned a pioneering business model into a high-flying success; Kenneth Wolfe, who expanded Hershey chocolate into new markets, dramatically increasing revenues and William Stavropoulous, who made Dow Chemical Company an industry leader.

All have faces that are wider rather than narrower, according to Wong’s research.

The Star asked her to put some Canadian CEOs to the test.

Jim Balsillie, co-chair of Research-in-Motion, the BlackBerry maker whose fortunes have tumbled this year, has a relatively narrow face, according to Wong’s calculations, forecasting less stellar results.

She put Tim Horton’s CEO Paul House and Loblaw’s chief Galen Weston Jr. squarely in the middle of the pack of 55 U.S. CEOs.

U.S. CEOs with lower facial ratios included Paul Allaire of Xerox, George Fisher of Kodak, and Richard Fuld of Lehman Brothers.

Wong cautions against eyeballing it because looks are deceiving. Barack Obama appears to have a thin face, but it only looks that way because he’s tall and thin. Precise measurements reveal he has a relatively wide face.

Even Wong and her fellow researchers don’t eyeball it. They use computer software to standardize the photos and measure the distance between cheekbones and the distance between the brow and upper lip.

But if Obama has a wide face, how to explain the current state of the U.S. economy? How to explain that a year ago, RIM, run by Balsillie and his partner Michael Lazaridis, was flying high?

The research reveals a trend, not an absolute that will hold true in every case, says Wong. And facial width is only one factor among numerous other variables.

The research was based on previous work by the University of Toronto’s Nicholas Rule, Ph.D., an assistant professor of psychology and Canada Research Chair in Social Perception and Cognition.

Rule’s research showed that people are able to judge successful CEOs from less successful ones based on photographs. They can even judge success later in life based on photographs taken in university.

Studies at Brock University have found that hockey players with wider faces tended to be more aggressive, with more penalty minutes, says Rule.

“It suggests there is something about the face,” says Rule. “What these studies are doing is saying indeed it’s the facial metrics.”

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